Ipswich vs Nottingham Forest Prediction — Model Probabilities for 23 October 2026
MatchSense model probabilities for Ipswich vs Nottingham Forest on 23 October 2026. Numbers refresh as lineups and market prices move.
Key takeaways
- The model's highest probability outcome is Nottingham Forest at 38.8%.
- Nottingham Forest: 38.8%.
- Ipswich: 31.4%.
- Draw: 29.8%.
- Ipswich are 10th in the table, Nottingham Forest 19th.
- The estimate is revised when confirmed team sheets arrive.
Ipswich host Nottingham Forest on 23 October 2026, 19:00 UTC in Premier League. This page carries the MatchSense model's probabilities for the fixture — not a tip, but an estimate of how likely each outcome is.
Ipswich come into this 10th in the Premier League table with 9 points; Nottingham Forest are 19th on 5 points — 9 places apart in a 20-team competition.
What the model makes of it
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Nottingham Forest | 38.8% |
| Ipswich | 31.4% |
| Draw | 29.8% |
These are frequencies, not forecasts — 55% describes how often similar fixtures end that way, not what will happen here.
What each side brings into this
Across their last 10, Ipswich show 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats, keeping 2 clean sheets. Nottingham Forest have won 1, drawn 4 and lost 5 of their last 10, averaging 0.9 scored and 1.4 conceded.
When these two have met
The two have met just twice in our records. Their previous meeting was on 3 March 2025, Nottingham Forest drawing 1-1.
Behind the estimate
The model blends both teams' attacking and defensive strength, Elo ratings, recent form, home advantage and player availability. An early version publishes days before kickoff and is revised once confirmed lineups land.
The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.
Go deeper
- Full Ipswich vs Nottingham Forest analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- Premier League table and fixtures
- Ipswich — Profile, squad and fixtures
- Nottingham Forest — Profile, squad and fixtures
This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.
Frequently asked questions
Who is more likely to win, Ipswich or Nottingham Forest?
The MatchSense model gives Nottingham Forest the highest probability at 38.8%. Even as the leading call it holds under half the probability, which makes this an open fixture.
When do Ipswich and Nottingham Forest play?
Kick-off is scheduled for 23 October 2026, 19:00 UTC in Premier League.
What happened the last time Ipswich played Nottingham Forest?
They last met on 3 March 2025, Nottingham Forest 1-1 Ipswich. Across both meetings, Ipswich have won 0, Nottingham Forest 1, with 1 drawn.
How is the model's accuracy measured?
They are calibrated against historical fixtures: across a set of 60% calls, close to 60% should actually happen. No model can make a single match certain.
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Related reading
- How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities
- Ipswich vs Nottingham Forest Result: 1-1 — How the Model Called It, 23 October 2026
- Tottenham vs Coventry Result: 3-1 — How the Model Called It, 19 October 2026
- Chelsea vs Tottenham Prediction — Model Probabilities for 24 October 2026
- Leeds vs Manchester United Result: 1-1 — How the Model Called It, 18 October 2026