Jagiellonia vs Ararat-Armenia Result: 3-1 — How the Model Called It, 15 October 2026
Jagiellonia vs Ararat-Armenia finished 3-1 on 15 October 2026. Here is that result set against the model's pre-match probabilities.
Key takeaways
- Final score: Jagiellonia 3-1 Ararat-Armenia.
- Result: Jagiellonia.
- The model gave this outcome a 63.4% chance before kick-off.
Final score
Jagiellonia 3-1 Ararat-Armenia in UEFA Europa League, 15 October 2026.
What the model expected
Before kick-off, the MatchSense model gave Jagiellonia vs Ararat-Armenia these chances:
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Jagiellonia | 63.4% |
| Draw | 20.4% |
| Ararat-Armenia | 16.2% |
The model's most likely outcome — Jagiellonia at 63.4% — is the one that happened.
One match does not test a model. An outcome given 30% is supposed to happen about three times in ten, so these numbers only mean something read across hundreds of fixtures.
Go deeper
- Full Jagiellonia vs Ararat-Armenia analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- UEFA Europa League table and fixtures
- Jagiellonia — Profile, squad and fixtures
- Ararat-Armenia — Profile, squad and fixtures
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