Juventus vs NEC Nijmegen Prediction — Model Probabilities for 17 September 2026
MatchSense model probabilities for Juventus vs NEC Nijmegen on 17 September 2026. With recent form and previous meetings for context.
Key takeaways
- The model's highest probability outcome is Juventus at 86.1%.
- Juventus: 86.1%.
- Draw: 9.2%.
- NEC Nijmegen: 4.7%.
- 3 further markets for this fixture are priced on the analysis page.
- Juventus come in on 4-4-2 from their last 10.
- Probabilities are refreshed once confirmed lineups are published.
Juventus take on NEC Nijmegen on 17 September 2026, 19:00 UTC in UEFA Europa League. Below are the MatchSense model's probabilities for this fixture, alongside the form and head-to-head context behind them.
Who does the model favour?
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Juventus | 86.1% |
| Draw | 9.2% |
| NEC Nijmegen | 4.7% |
Read a probability as a long-run frequency: a 55% call means fixtures that look like this one finish that way roughly 55 times in 100.
How both sides arrive
Juventus bring a record of 4-4-2 from their last 10, keeping 5 clean sheets. NEC Nijmegen have won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5 of their last 10, averaging 1.3 scored and 1.9 conceded.
Beyond the match result, the model also prices 3 further markets for this fixture — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market, and a confidence band. Those sit on the match analysis page.
Behind the estimate
Attacking and defensive strength, Elo ratings, the run of recent results, home advantage and who is fit all feed the estimate. The numbers are revised when confirmed lineups arrive, because one missing starter can move them several points.
The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.
Go deeper
- Full Juventus vs NEC Nijmegen analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- UEFA Europa League table and fixtures
- Juventus — Profile, squad and fixtures
- NEC Nijmegen — Profile, squad and fixtures
This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.
Frequently asked questions
Who is more likely to win, Juventus or NEC Nijmegen?
The MatchSense model gives Juventus the highest probability at 86.1%. That is a clear lead, though the remainder still sits with the other outcomes.
When do Juventus and NEC Nijmegen play?
Kick-off is scheduled for 17 September 2026, 19:00 UTC in UEFA Europa League.
Which markets are analysed for Juventus vs NEC Nijmegen?
Alongside the match result shown on this page, the model prices 3 further markets — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market and a confidence band, on the match analysis page.
What form are Juventus and NEC Nijmegen in?
Juventus bring a record of 4-4-2 from their last 10, keeping 5 clean sheets. NEC Nijmegen bring a record of 2-3-5 from their last 10, averaging 1.3 scored and 1.9 conceded. Recent form is one of the inputs behind the probabilities above.
How is the model's accuracy measured?
They are calibrated against historical fixtures: across a set of 60% calls, close to 60% should actually happen. No model can make a single match certain.
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