Lecce vs Monza Prediction — Model Probabilities for 13 September 2026

MatchSense model probabilities for Lecce vs Monza on 13 September 2026. Numbers refresh as lineups and market prices move.

Key takeaways

The model's highest probability outcome is Monza at 38.5%.
Monza: 38.5%.
Lecce: 37.2%.
Draw: 24.3%.
Lecce are 14th in the table, Monza 17th.
The estimate is revised when confirmed team sheets arrive.

Lecce take on Monza on 13 September 2026, 13:00 UTC in Serie A. Below are the MatchSense model's probabilities for this fixture, alongside the form and head-to-head context behind them.

In the Serie A table, Lecce are 14th and Monza 17th, 2 points between them.

Who does the model favour?

Outcome	Model probability
Monza	38.5%
Lecce	37.2%
Draw	24.3%

A probability is a rate over many similar matches: 55% means about 55 in 100, and says nothing certain about this one.

What each side brings into this

Lecce have won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10, keeping 3 clean sheets. Monza bring a record of 3-4-3 from their last 10, keeping 3 clean sheets.

When these two have met

3 previous meetings split 1-2-0 in Lecce's favour on the head-to-head. Their previous meeting was on 16 February 2025, Monza drawing 0-0.

Where the numbers come from

It starts from a Dixon-Coles style goal model, adds Elo ratings, recent results, home advantage and squad availability. A first estimate goes out well before kickoff; a second follows when the team sheets are confirmed.

The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.

Go deeper

Full Lecce vs Monza analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
Serie A table and fixtures
Lecce — Profile, squad and fixtures
Monza — Profile, squad and fixtures

This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.

Frequently asked questions

Who is more likely to win, Lecce or Monza?

The MatchSense model gives Monza the highest probability at 38.5%. Even as the leading call it holds under half the probability, which makes this an open fixture.

When do Lecce and Monza play?

Kick-off is scheduled for 13 September 2026, 13:00 UTC in Serie A.

What happened the last time Lecce played Monza?

They last met on 16 February 2025, Monza 0-0 Lecce. Across 3 meetings, Lecce have won 1, Monza 0, with 2 drawn.

How reliable is this estimate?

Accuracy is measured with Brier score and log loss over thousands of completed fixtures, which is what makes a 60% call mean roughly 60 in 100 — not a certainty about this one.

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