Lecce vs Monza Prediction — Model Probabilities for 13 September 2026
MatchSense model probabilities for Lecce vs Monza on 13 September 2026. Numbers refresh as lineups and market prices move.
Key takeaways
- The model's highest probability outcome is Monza at 35.3%.
- Monza: 35.3%.
- Lecce: 33.6%.
- Draw: 31.1%.
- 1 further market for this fixture is priced on the analysis page.
- Lecce are 14th in the table, Monza 18th.
- The estimate is revised when confirmed team sheets arrive.
Lecce take on Monza on 13 September 2026, 13:00 UTC in Serie A. Below are the MatchSense model's probabilities for this fixture, alongside the form and head-to-head context behind them.
In the Serie A table, Lecce are 14th and Monza 18th, 2 points between them.
Who does the model favour?
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Monza | 35.3% |
| Lecce | 33.6% |
| Draw | 31.1% |
A probability is a rate over many similar matches: 55% means about 55 in 100, and says nothing certain about this one.
What each side brings into this
Lecce have won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10, keeping 3 clean sheets. Monza bring a record of 3-4-3 from their last 10, keeping 3 clean sheets.
When these two have met
3 previous meetings split 1-2-0 in Lecce's favour on the head-to-head. Their previous meeting was on 16 February 2025, Monza drawing 0-0.
Beyond the match result, the model also prices one further market for this fixture — with a modelled price, the difference against the market, and a confidence band. That sits on the match analysis page.
Where the numbers come from
It starts from a Dixon-Coles style goal model, adds Elo ratings, recent results, home advantage and squad availability. A first estimate goes out well before kickoff; a second follows when the team sheets are confirmed.
The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.
Go deeper
- Full Lecce vs Monza analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- Serie A table and fixtures
- Lecce — Profile, squad and fixtures
- Monza — Profile, squad and fixtures
This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.
Frequently asked questions
Who is more likely to win, Lecce or Monza?
The MatchSense model gives Monza the highest probability at 35.3%. Even as the leading call it holds under half the probability, which makes this an open fixture.
When do Lecce and Monza play?
Kick-off is scheduled for 13 September 2026, 13:00 UTC in Serie A.
Which markets are analysed for Lecce vs Monza?
Alongside the match result shown on this page, the model prices 1 further markets — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market and a confidence band, on the match analysis page.
What happened the last time Lecce played Monza?
They last met on 16 February 2025, Monza 0-0 Lecce. Across 3 meetings, Lecce have won 1, Monza 0, with 2 drawn.
How reliable is this estimate?
Accuracy is measured with Brier score and log loss over thousands of completed fixtures, which is what makes a 60% call mean roughly 60 in 100 — not a certainty about this one.
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