Lille vs Estac Troyes Prediction — Model Probabilities for 13 September 2026
MatchSense model probabilities for Lille vs Estac Troyes on 13 September 2026. Numbers refresh as lineups and market prices move.
Key takeaways
- The model's highest probability outcome is Lille at 64.3%.
- Lille: 64.3%.
- Draw: 20.4%.
- Estac Troyes: 15.3%.
- 1 further market for this fixture is priced on the analysis page.
- Lille are 5th in the table, Estac Troyes 10th.
- The estimate is revised when confirmed team sheets arrive.
Lille take on Estac Troyes on 13 September 2026, 13:00 UTC in Ligue 1. What follows is the MatchSense model's read on this fixture, with the recent record of both sides for context.
In the Ligue 1 table, Lille are 5th and Estac Troyes 10th, 3 points between them.
What the model makes of it
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Lille | 64.3% |
| Draw | 20.4% |
| Estac Troyes | 15.3% |
Read a probability as a long-run frequency: a 55% call means fixtures that look like this one finish that way roughly 55 times in 100.
What each side brings into this
Lille have won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10, conceding just 0.8 a game. Estac Troyes bring a record of 5-2-3 from their last 10, scoring 2.0 a game.
Beyond the match result, the model also prices one further market for this fixture — with a modelled price, the difference against the market, and a confidence band. That sits on the match analysis page.
Behind the estimate
The model blends both teams' attacking and defensive strength, Elo ratings, recent form, home advantage and player availability. The numbers are revised when confirmed lineups arrive, because one missing starter can move them several points.
The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.
Go deeper
- Full Lille vs Estac Troyes analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- Ligue 1 table and fixtures
- Lille — Profile, squad and fixtures
- Estac Troyes — Profile, squad and fixtures
This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.
Frequently asked questions
Who is more likely to win, Lille or Estac Troyes?
The MatchSense model gives Lille the highest probability at 64.3%. That is a clear lead, though the remainder still sits with the other outcomes.
When do Lille and Estac Troyes play?
Kick-off is scheduled for 13 September 2026, 13:00 UTC in Ligue 1.
Which markets are analysed for Lille vs Estac Troyes?
Alongside the match result shown on this page, the model prices 1 further markets — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market and a confidence band, on the match analysis page.
What form are Lille and Estac Troyes in?
Lille have won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10, conceding just 0.8 a game. Across their last 10, Estac Troyes show 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats, scoring 2.0 a game. Recent form is one of the inputs behind the probabilities above.
How accurate are these probabilities?
They are calibrated against historical fixtures: across a set of 60% calls, close to 60% should actually happen. No model can make a single match certain.
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