Liverpool vs Fulham Prediction — Model Probabilities for 12 September 2026
MatchSense model probabilities for Liverpool vs Fulham on 12 September 2026. Numbers refresh as lineups and market prices move.
Key takeaways
- The model's highest probability outcome is Liverpool at 60.1%.
- Liverpool: 60.1%.
- Draw: 21.7%.
- Fulham: 18.2%.
- 1 further market for this fixture is priced on the analysis page.
- Liverpool are 6th in the table, Fulham 19th.
- These numbers move again once the lineups are confirmed.
Liverpool welcome Fulham on 12 September 2026, 14:00 UTC in Premier League. What follows is the MatchSense model's read on this fixture, with the recent record of both sides for context.
Liverpool come into this 6th in the Premier League table with 5 points; Fulham are 19th on 0 points — 13 places apart in a 20-team competition.
The model's read
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Liverpool | 60.1% |
| Draw | 21.7% |
| Fulham | 18.2% |
These are frequencies, not forecasts — 55% describes how often similar fixtures end that way, not what will happen here.
What each side brings into this
Liverpool stretch an unbeaten run of 5 into this one, averaging 1.9 scored and 1.6 conceded. Fulham come in with 6 defeats in 10, keeping 3 clean sheets.
When these two have met
Across 4 meetings it is close: 1 to Liverpool, 1 to Fulham, 2 drawn. The most recent meeting came on 11 April 2026: Liverpool 2-0 Fulham, Liverpool taking it.
Beyond the match result, the model also prices one further market for this fixture — with a modelled price, the difference against the market, and a confidence band. That sits on the match analysis page.
Behind the estimate
The model blends both teams' attacking and defensive strength, Elo ratings, recent form, home advantage and player availability. An early version publishes days before kickoff and is revised once confirmed lineups land.
The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.
Go deeper
- Full Liverpool vs Fulham analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- Premier League table and fixtures
- Liverpool — Profile, squad and fixtures
- Fulham — Profile, squad and fixtures
This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.
Frequently asked questions
Who is more likely to win, Liverpool or Fulham?
The MatchSense model gives Liverpool the highest probability at 60.1%. That is a clear lead, though the remainder still sits with the other outcomes.
When do Liverpool and Fulham play?
Kick-off is scheduled for 12 September 2026, 14:00 UTC in Premier League.
Which markets are analysed for Liverpool vs Fulham?
Alongside the match result shown on this page, the model prices 1 further markets — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market and a confidence band, on the match analysis page.
What happened the last time Liverpool played Fulham?
They last met on 11 April 2026, Liverpool 2-0 Fulham. Across 4 meetings, Liverpool have won 1, Fulham 1, with 2 drawn.
How accurate are these probabilities?
Accuracy is measured with Brier score and log loss over thousands of completed fixtures, which is what makes a 60% call mean roughly 60 in 100 — not a certainty about this one.
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