Liverpool vs Fulham Prediction — Model Probabilities for 12 September 2026

MatchSense model probabilities for Liverpool vs Fulham on 12 September 2026. Numbers refresh as lineups and market prices move.

Key takeaways

The model's highest probability outcome is Liverpool at 54.6%.
Liverpool: 54.6%.
Draw: 23.6%.
Fulham: 21.8%.
Liverpool are 6th in the table, Fulham 19th.
These numbers move again once the lineups are confirmed.

Liverpool welcome Fulham on 12 September 2026, 14:00 UTC in Premier League. What follows is the MatchSense model's read on this fixture, with the recent record of both sides for context.

Liverpool come into this 6th in the Premier League table with 5 points; Fulham are 19th on 0 points — 13 places apart in a 20-team competition.

The model's read

Outcome	Model probability
Liverpool	54.6%
Draw	23.6%
Fulham	21.8%

These are frequencies, not forecasts — 55% describes how often similar fixtures end that way, not what will happen here.

What each side brings into this

Liverpool stretch an unbeaten run of 4 into this one, averaging 1.7 scored and 1.7 conceded. Fulham come in with 6 defeats in 10, keeping 3 clean sheets.

When these two have met

Across 4 meetings it is close: 1 to Liverpool, 1 to Fulham, 2 drawn. The most recent meeting came on 11 April 2026: Liverpool 2-0 Fulham, Liverpool taking it.

Behind the estimate

The model blends both teams' attacking and defensive strength, Elo ratings, recent form, home advantage and player availability. An early version publishes days before kickoff and is revised once confirmed lineups land.

The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.

Go deeper

Full Liverpool vs Fulham analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
Premier League table and fixtures
Liverpool — Profile, squad and fixtures
Fulham — Profile, squad and fixtures

This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.

Frequently asked questions

Who is more likely to win, Liverpool or Fulham?

The MatchSense model gives Liverpool the highest probability at 54.6%. It leads without settling the fixture — the rest is split across the other outcomes.

When do Liverpool and Fulham play?

Kick-off is scheduled for 12 September 2026, 14:00 UTC in Premier League.

What happened the last time Liverpool played Fulham?

They last met on 11 April 2026, Liverpool 2-0 Fulham. Across 4 meetings, Liverpool have won 1, Fulham 1, with 2 drawn.

How accurate are these probabilities?

Accuracy is measured with Brier score and log loss over thousands of completed fixtures, which is what makes a 60% call mean roughly 60 in 100 — not a certainty about this one.

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