Napoli vs Bologna Prediction — Model Probabilities for 13 September 2026
MatchSense model probabilities for Napoli vs Bologna on 13 September 2026. With recent form and previous meetings for context.
Key takeaways
- The model's highest probability outcome is Napoli at 40.9%.
- Napoli: 40.9%.
- Draw: 29.8%.
- Bologna: 29.3%.
- 2 further markets for this fixture are priced on the analysis page.
- Napoli are 12th in the table, Bologna 16th.
- The estimate is revised when confirmed team sheets arrive.
Napoli host Bologna on 13 September 2026, 16:00 UTC in Serie A. This page carries the MatchSense model's probabilities for the fixture — not a tip, but an estimate of how likely each outcome is.
In the Serie A table, Napoli are 12th and Bologna 16th, 2 points between them.
The model's read
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Napoli | 40.9% |
| Draw | 29.8% |
| Bologna | 29.3% |
Read a probability as a long-run frequency: a 55% call means fixtures that look like this one finish that way roughly 55 times in 100.
Recent form
Napoli have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 5 of their last 10, keeping 5 clean sheets. Bologna bring a record of 2-3-5 from their last 10, keeping 2 clean sheets.
Previous meetings
Bologna have dominated the meetings, taking 3 of 5. Their previous meeting was on 11 May 2026: Napoli 2-3 Bologna, Bologna taking it.
Beyond the match result, the model also prices 2 further markets for this fixture — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market, and a confidence band. Those sit on the match analysis page.
Where the numbers come from
It starts from a Dixon-Coles style goal model, adds Elo ratings, recent results, home advantage and squad availability. An early version publishes days before kickoff and is revised once confirmed lineups land.
The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.
Go deeper
- Full Napoli vs Bologna analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- Serie A table and fixtures
- Napoli — Profile, squad and fixtures
- Bologna — Profile, squad and fixtures
This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.
Frequently asked questions
Who is more likely to win, Napoli or Bologna?
The MatchSense model gives Napoli the highest probability at 40.9%. No outcome takes half the probability here, so the model reads it as genuinely open.
When do Napoli and Bologna play?
Kick-off is scheduled for 13 September 2026, 16:00 UTC in Serie A.
Which markets are analysed for Napoli vs Bologna?
Alongside the match result shown on this page, the model prices 2 further markets — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market and a confidence band, on the match analysis page.
What happened the last time Napoli played Bologna?
They last met on 11 May 2026, Napoli 2-3 Bologna. Across 5 meetings, Napoli have won 1, Bologna 3, with 1 drawn.
How accurate are these probabilities?
The model is scored against past results, so a 60% probability has historically landed near 60% of the time. A single match remains uncertain.
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