Napoli vs Bologna Prediction — Model Probabilities for 13 September 2026

MatchSense model probabilities for Napoli vs Bologna on 13 September 2026. With recent form and previous meetings for context.

Key takeaways

The model's highest probability outcome is Napoli at 54.6%.
Napoli: 54.6%.
Bologna: 23.6%.
Draw: 21.8%.
Napoli are 12th in the table, Bologna 15th.
The estimate is revised when confirmed team sheets arrive.

Napoli host Bologna on 13 September 2026, 16:00 UTC in Serie A. This page carries the MatchSense model's probabilities for the fixture — not a tip, but an estimate of how likely each outcome is.

In the Serie A table, Napoli are 12th and Bologna 15th, 2 points between them.

The model's read

Outcome	Model probability
Napoli	54.6%
Bologna	23.6%
Draw	21.8%

Read a probability as a long-run frequency: a 55% call means fixtures that look like this one finish that way roughly 55 times in 100.

Recent form

Napoli have won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10, keeping 5 clean sheets. Bologna bring a record of 2-3-5 from their last 10, keeping 2 clean sheets.

Previous meetings

Bologna have dominated the meetings, taking 3 of 5. Their previous meeting was on 11 May 2026: Napoli 2-3 Bologna, Bologna taking it.

Where the numbers come from

It starts from a Dixon-Coles style goal model, adds Elo ratings, recent results, home advantage and squad availability. An early version publishes days before kickoff and is revised once confirmed lineups land.

The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.

Go deeper

Full Napoli vs Bologna analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
Serie A table and fixtures
Napoli — Profile, squad and fixtures
Bologna — Profile, squad and fixtures

This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.

Frequently asked questions

Who is more likely to win, Napoli or Bologna?

The MatchSense model gives Napoli the highest probability at 54.6%. It leads without settling the fixture — the rest is split across the other outcomes.

When do Napoli and Bologna play?

Kick-off is scheduled for 13 September 2026, 16:00 UTC in Serie A.

What happened the last time Napoli played Bologna?

They last met on 11 May 2026, Napoli 2-3 Bologna. Across 5 meetings, Napoli have won 1, Bologna 3, with 1 drawn.

How accurate are these probabilities?

The model is scored against past results, so a 60% probability has historically landed near 60% of the time. A single match remains uncertain.

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