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FOOTBALLEredivisiematch-preview17/10/20262 min readMatchSense Model

NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard Prediction — Model Probabilities for 18 October 2026

MatchSense model probabilities for NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard on 18 October 2026. Form, the table and the head-to-head behind the numbers.

Key takeaways

  • The model's highest probability outcome is NEC Nijmegen at 49.0%.
  • NEC Nijmegen: 49.0%.
  • Draw: 29.0%.
  • Fortuna Sittard: 22.0%.
  • 2 further markets for this fixture are priced on the analysis page.
  • NEC Nijmegen are 11th in the table, Fortuna Sittard 7th.
  • The estimate is revised when confirmed team sheets arrive.

NEC Nijmegen take on Fortuna Sittard on 18 October 2026, 18:00 UTC in Eredivisie. What follows is the MatchSense model's read on this fixture, with the recent record of both sides for context.

NEC Nijmegen come into this 11th in the Eredivisie table with 9 points; Fortuna Sittard are 7th on 14 points.

The model's read

OutcomeModel probability
NEC Nijmegen49.0%
Draw29.0%
Fortuna Sittard22.0%

Read a probability as a long-run frequency: a 55% call means fixtures that look like this one finish that way roughly 55 times in 100.

How both sides arrive

NEC Nijmegen have won 1, drawn 4 and lost 5 of their last 10, averaging 1.0 scored and 2.3 conceded. Across their last 10, Fortuna Sittard show 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats, averaging 1.7 scored and 1.9 conceded.

Previous meetings

Across 5 meetings it is close: 2 to NEC Nijmegen, 2 to Fortuna Sittard, 1 drawn. The most recent meeting came on 28 February 2026: NEC Nijmegen 2-3 Fortuna Sittard, Fortuna Sittard taking it.

Beyond the match result, the model also prices 2 further markets for this fixture — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market, and a confidence band. Those sit on the match analysis page.

Behind the estimate

Attacking and defensive strength, Elo ratings, the run of recent results, home advantage and who is fit all feed the estimate. The numbers are revised when confirmed lineups arrive, because one missing starter can move them several points.

The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.

Go deeper

This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.

Frequently asked questions

Who is more likely to win, NEC Nijmegen or Fortuna Sittard?

The MatchSense model gives NEC Nijmegen the highest probability at 49.0%. It leads without settling the fixture — the rest is split across the other outcomes.

When do NEC Nijmegen and Fortuna Sittard play?

Kick-off is scheduled for 18 October 2026, 18:00 UTC in Eredivisie.

Which markets are analysed for NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard?

Alongside the match result shown on this page, the model prices 2 further markets — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market and a confidence band, on the match analysis page.

What happened the last time NEC Nijmegen played Fortuna Sittard?

They last met on 28 February 2026, NEC Nijmegen 2-3 Fortuna Sittard. Across 5 meetings, NEC Nijmegen have won 2, Fortuna Sittard 2, with 1 drawn.

How is the model's accuracy measured?

They are calibrated against historical fixtures: across a set of 60% calls, close to 60% should actually happen. No model can make a single match certain.

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