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FOOTBALLUEFA Europa Leaguematch-preview11/10/20262 min readMatchSense Model

NEC Nijmegen vs Levski Sofia Prediction — Model Probabilities for 15 October 2026

MatchSense model probabilities for NEC Nijmegen vs Levski Sofia on 15 October 2026. Form, the table and the head-to-head behind the numbers.

Key takeaways

  • The model's highest probability outcome is NEC Nijmegen at 45.8%.
  • NEC Nijmegen: 45.8%.
  • Draw: 27.1%.
  • Levski Sofia: 27.1%.
  • 2 further markets for this fixture are priced on the analysis page.
  • NEC Nijmegen are 36th in the table, Levski Sofia 27th.
  • The estimate is revised when confirmed team sheets arrive.

NEC Nijmegen welcome Levski Sofia on 15 October 2026, 19:00 UTC in UEFA Europa League. This page carries the MatchSense model's probabilities for the fixture — not a tip, but an estimate of how likely each outcome is.

NEC Nijmegen come into this 36th in the UEFA Europa League table with 0 points; Levski Sofia are 27th on 0 points — 9 places apart in a 36-team competition.

The model's read

OutcomeModel probability
NEC Nijmegen45.8%
Draw27.1%
Levski Sofia27.1%

A probability is a rate over many similar matches: 55% means about 55 in 100, and says nothing certain about this one.

What each side brings into this

NEC Nijmegen bring a record of 2-3-5 from their last 10, averaging 1.3 scored and 2.3 conceded. Levski Sofia have won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10, keeping 5 clean sheets.

Beyond the match result, the model also prices 2 further markets for this fixture — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market, and a confidence band. Those sit on the match analysis page.

Behind the estimate

It starts from a Dixon-Coles style goal model, adds Elo ratings, recent results, home advantage and squad availability. A first estimate goes out well before kickoff; a second follows when the team sheets are confirmed.

The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.

Go deeper

This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.

Frequently asked questions

Who is more likely to win, NEC Nijmegen or Levski Sofia?

The MatchSense model gives NEC Nijmegen the highest probability at 45.8%. That is a real but not decisive edge over the other results.

When do NEC Nijmegen and Levski Sofia play?

Kick-off is scheduled for 15 October 2026, 19:00 UTC in UEFA Europa League.

Which markets are analysed for NEC Nijmegen vs Levski Sofia?

Alongside the match result shown on this page, the model prices 2 further markets — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market and a confidence band, on the match analysis page.

What form are NEC Nijmegen and Levski Sofia in?

NEC Nijmegen have won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5 of their last 10, averaging 1.3 scored and 2.3 conceded. Levski Sofia have won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10, keeping 5 clean sheets. Recent form is one of the inputs behind the probabilities above.

How is the model's accuracy measured?

The model is scored against past results, so a 60% probability has historically landed near 60% of the time. A single match remains uncertain.

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