New England Revolution vs Orlando City SC Prediction — Model Probabilities for 19 September 2026
MatchSense model probabilities for New England Revolution vs Orlando City SC on 19 September 2026. With recent form and previous meetings for context.
Key takeaways
- The model's highest probability outcome is New England Revolution at 46.0%.
- New England Revolution: 46.0%.
- Orlando City SC: 27.8%.
- Draw: 26.2%.
- New England Revolution are 3rd in the table, Orlando City SC 6th.
- Probabilities are refreshed once confirmed lineups are published.
New England Revolution take on Orlando City SC on 19 September 2026, 23:30 UTC in Major League Soccer. What follows is the MatchSense model's read on this fixture, with the recent record of both sides for context.
New England Revolution come into this 3rd in the Major League Soccer table with 43 points; Orlando City SC are 6th on 34 points.
The model's read
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| New England Revolution | 46.0% |
| Orlando City SC | 27.8% |
| Draw | 26.2% |
These are frequencies, not forecasts — 55% describes how often similar fixtures end that way, not what will happen here.
Recent form
New England Revolution have won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10, averaging 1.9 scored and 1.3 conceded. Orlando City SC come in having won 3 in a row, scoring 2.1 a game.
When these two have met
The two have met just twice in our records. Their previous meeting was on 19 July 2025: New England Revolution 1-2 Orlando City SC, Orlando City SC taking it.
How are these numbers produced?
The model blends both teams' attacking and defensive strength, Elo ratings, recent form, home advantage and player availability. An early version publishes days before kickoff and is revised once confirmed lineups land.
The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.
Go deeper
- Full New England Revolution vs Orlando City SC analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- Major League Soccer table and fixtures
- New England Revolution — Profile, squad and fixtures
- Orlando City SC — Profile, squad and fixtures
This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.
Frequently asked questions
Who is more likely to win, New England Revolution or Orlando City SC?
The MatchSense model gives New England Revolution the highest probability at 46.0%. That is a real but not decisive edge over the other results.
When do New England Revolution and Orlando City SC play?
Kick-off is scheduled for 19 September 2026, 23:30 UTC in Major League Soccer.
What happened the last time New England Revolution played Orlando City SC?
They last met on 19 July 2025, New England Revolution 1-2 Orlando City SC. Across both meetings, New England Revolution have won 0, Orlando City SC 1, with 1 drawn.
How is the model's accuracy measured?
Accuracy is measured with Brier score and log loss over thousands of completed fixtures, which is what makes a 60% call mean roughly 60 in 100 — not a certainty about this one.
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