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FOOTBALLPremier Leaguematch-preview01/11/20262 min readMatchSense Model

Newcastle United FC vs Everton FC Prediction — Model Probabilities for 2 November 2026

MatchSense model probabilities for Newcastle United FC vs Everton FC on 2 November 2026. With recent form and previous meetings for context.

Key takeaways

  • The model's highest probability outcome is Newcastle United FC at 43.7%.
  • Newcastle United FC: 43.7%.
  • Draw: 29.3%.
  • Everton FC: 27.1%.
  • 2 further markets for this fixture are priced on the analysis page.
  • Newcastle United FC are 11th in the table, Everton FC 8th.
  • Probabilities are refreshed once confirmed lineups are published.

Newcastle United FC welcome Everton FC on 2 November 2026, 20:00 UTC in Premier League. What follows is the MatchSense model's read on this fixture, with the recent record of both sides for context.

In the Premier League table, Newcastle United FC are 11th and Everton FC 8th, 2 points between them.

The model's read

OutcomeModel probability
Newcastle United FC43.7%
Draw29.3%
Everton FC27.1%

Read a probability as a long-run frequency: a 55% call means fixtures that look like this one finish that way roughly 55 times in 100.

Recent form

Across their last 10, Newcastle United FC show 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats, averaging 1.4 scored and 1.8 conceded. Everton FC have won 2, drawn 5 and lost 3 of their last 10, keeping 3 clean sheets.

Beyond the match result, the model also prices 2 further markets for this fixture — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market, and a confidence band. Those sit on the match analysis page.

Behind the estimate

Attacking and defensive strength, Elo ratings, the run of recent results, home advantage and who is fit all feed the estimate. An early version publishes days before kickoff and is revised once confirmed lineups land.

The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.

Go deeper

This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.

Frequently asked questions

Who is more likely to win, Newcastle United FC or Everton FC?

The MatchSense model gives Newcastle United FC the highest probability at 43.7%. Even as the leading call it holds under half the probability, which makes this an open fixture.

When do Newcastle United FC and Everton FC play?

Kick-off is scheduled for 2 November 2026, 20:00 UTC in Premier League.

Which markets are analysed for Newcastle United FC vs Everton FC?

Alongside the match result shown on this page, the model prices 2 further markets — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market and a confidence band, on the match analysis page.

What form are Newcastle United FC and Everton FC in?

Newcastle United FC bring a record of 3-3-4 from their last 10, averaging 1.4 scored and 1.8 conceded. Across their last 10, Everton FC show 2 wins, 5 draws and 3 defeats, keeping 3 clean sheets. Recent form is one of the inputs behind the probabilities above.

How accurate are these probabilities?

The model is scored against past results, so a 60% probability has historically landed near 60% of the time. A single match remains uncertain.

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