Tottenham vs Crystal Palace Prediction — Model Probabilities for 31 October 2026
MatchSense model probabilities for Tottenham vs Crystal Palace on 31 October 2026. Numbers refresh as lineups and market prices move.
Key takeaways
- The model's highest probability outcome is Tottenham at 50.6%.
- Tottenham: 50.6%.
- Draw: 26.6%.
- Crystal Palace: 22.8%.
- Tottenham are 16th in the table, Crystal Palace 14th.
- Probabilities are refreshed once confirmed lineups are published.
Tottenham welcome Crystal Palace on 31 October 2026, 17:30 UTC in Premier League. Below are the MatchSense model's probabilities for this fixture, alongside the form and head-to-head context behind them.
Tottenham come into this 16th in the Premier League table with 6 points; Crystal Palace are 14th on 7 points.
Who does the model favour?
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Tottenham | 50.6% |
| Draw | 26.6% |
| Crystal Palace | 22.8% |
A probability is a rate over many similar matches: 55% means about 55 in 100, and says nothing certain about this one.
Recent form
Tottenham have won 2, drawn 4 and lost 4 of their last 10, keeping 3 clean sheets. Across their last 10, Crystal Palace show 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats, keeping 2 clean sheets.
Previous meetings
It is Crystal Palace who lead this one 3-0-1. They last met on 5 March 2026: Tottenham 1-3 Crystal Palace, Crystal Palace taking it.
How are these numbers produced?
It starts from a Dixon-Coles style goal model, adds Elo ratings, recent results, home advantage and squad availability. The numbers are revised when confirmed lineups arrive, because one missing starter can move them several points.
The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.
Go deeper
- Full Tottenham vs Crystal Palace analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- Premier League table and fixtures
- Tottenham — Profile, squad and fixtures
- Crystal Palace — Profile, squad and fixtures
This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.
Frequently asked questions
Who is more likely to win, Tottenham or Crystal Palace?
The MatchSense model gives Tottenham the highest probability at 50.6%. That is a real but not decisive edge over the other results.
When do Tottenham and Crystal Palace play?
Kick-off is scheduled for 31 October 2026, 17:30 UTC in Premier League.
What happened the last time Tottenham played Crystal Palace?
They last met on 5 March 2026, Tottenham 1-3 Crystal Palace. Across 4 meetings, Tottenham have won 1, Crystal Palace 3, with 0 drawn.
How accurate are these probabilities?
Accuracy is measured with Brier score and log loss over thousands of completed fixtures, which is what makes a 60% call mean roughly 60 in 100 — not a certainty about this one.
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