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FOOTBALLUEFA Europa Leaguematch-preview18/10/20262 min readMatchSense Model

OFI vs Bayer Leverkusen Prediction — Model Probabilities for 22 October 2026

MatchSense model probabilities for OFI vs Bayer Leverkusen on 22 October 2026. Form, the table and the head-to-head behind the numbers.

Key takeaways

  • The model's highest probability outcome is Bayer Leverkusen at 79.6%.
  • Bayer Leverkusen: 79.6%.
  • Draw: 12.9%.
  • OFI: 7.6%.
  • 1 further market for this fixture is priced on the analysis page.
  • OFI are 9th in the table, Bayer Leverkusen 8th.
  • The estimate is revised when confirmed team sheets arrive.

OFI take on Bayer Leverkusen on 22 October 2026, 16:45 UTC in UEFA Europa League. Below are the MatchSense model's probabilities for this fixture, alongside the form and head-to-head context behind them.

OFI come into this 9th in the UEFA Europa League table with 3 points; Bayer Leverkusen are 8th on 3 points, a single place apart.

The model's read

OutcomeModel probability
Bayer Leverkusen79.6%
Draw12.9%
OFI7.6%

Read a probability as a long-run frequency: a 55% call means fixtures that look like this one finish that way roughly 55 times in 100.

What each side brings into this

Across their last 10, OFI show 5 wins, 1 draws and 4 defeats, keeping 5 clean sheets. Bayer Leverkusen come in having won 5 in a row, scoring 2.7 a game.

Beyond the match result, the model also prices one further market for this fixture — with a modelled price, the difference against the market, and a confidence band. That sits on the match analysis page.

Behind the estimate

The model blends both teams' attacking and defensive strength, Elo ratings, recent form, home advantage and player availability. A first estimate goes out well before kickoff; a second follows when the team sheets are confirmed.

The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.

Go deeper

This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.

Frequently asked questions

Who is more likely to win, OFI or Bayer Leverkusen?

The MatchSense model gives Bayer Leverkusen the highest probability at 79.6%. That is a clear lead, though the remainder still sits with the other outcomes.

When do OFI and Bayer Leverkusen play?

Kick-off is scheduled for 22 October 2026, 16:45 UTC in UEFA Europa League.

Which markets are analysed for OFI vs Bayer Leverkusen?

Alongside the match result shown on this page, the model prices 1 further markets — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market and a confidence band, on the match analysis page.

What form are OFI and Bayer Leverkusen in?

OFI have won 5, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 10, keeping 5 clean sheets. Bayer Leverkusen come in having won 5 in a row, scoring 2.7 a game. Recent form is one of the inputs behind the probabilities above.

How reliable is this estimate?

The model is scored against past results, so a 60% probability has historically landed near 60% of the time. A single match remains uncertain.

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