PEC Zwolle vs Cambuur Prediction — Model Probabilities for 11 October 2026
MatchSense model probabilities for PEC Zwolle vs Cambuur on 11 October 2026. With recent form and previous meetings for context.
Key takeaways
- The model's highest probability outcome is PEC Zwolle at 53.6%.
- PEC Zwolle: 53.6%.
- Draw: 23.6%.
- Cambuur: 22.6%.
- PEC Zwolle are 16th in the table, Cambuur 14th.
- The estimate is revised when confirmed team sheets arrive.
PEC Zwolle host Cambuur on 11 October 2026, 12:30 UTC in Eredivisie. Below are the MatchSense model's probabilities for this fixture, alongside the form and head-to-head context behind them.
PEC Zwolle come into this 16th in the Eredivisie table with 4 points; Cambuur are 14th on 5 points.
The model's read
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| PEC Zwolle | 53.6% |
| Draw | 23.6% |
| Cambuur | 22.6% |
These are frequencies, not forecasts — 55% describes how often similar fixtures end that way, not what will happen here.
What each side brings into this
PEC Zwolle have lost 7 of their last 10, keeping 2 clean sheets. Cambuur have won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5 of their last 10, averaging 1.4 scored and 2.4 conceded.
Where the numbers come from
The model blends both teams' attacking and defensive strength, Elo ratings, recent form, home advantage and player availability. The numbers are revised when confirmed lineups arrive, because one missing starter can move them several points.
The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.
Go deeper
- Full PEC Zwolle vs Cambuur analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- Eredivisie table and fixtures
- PEC Zwolle — Profile, squad and fixtures
- Cambuur — Profile, squad and fixtures
This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.
Frequently asked questions
Who is more likely to win, PEC Zwolle or Cambuur?
The MatchSense model gives PEC Zwolle the highest probability at 53.6%. It leads without settling the fixture — the rest is split across the other outcomes.
When do PEC Zwolle and Cambuur play?
Kick-off is scheduled for 11 October 2026, 12:30 UTC in Eredivisie.
What form are PEC Zwolle and Cambuur in?
PEC Zwolle have lost 7 of their last 10, keeping 2 clean sheets. Across their last 10, Cambuur show 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats, averaging 1.4 scored and 2.4 conceded. Recent form is one of the inputs behind the probabilities above.
How accurate are these probabilities?
Accuracy is measured with Brier score and log loss over thousands of completed fixtures, which is what makes a 60% call mean roughly 60 in 100 — not a certainty about this one.
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