Plzen vs Levski Sofia Prediction — Model Probabilities for 22 October 2026
MatchSense model probabilities for Plzen vs Levski Sofia on 22 October 2026. Numbers refresh as lineups and market prices move.
Key takeaways
- The model's highest probability outcome is Plzen at 52.5%.
- Plzen: 52.5%.
- Draw: 25.6%.
- Levski Sofia: 21.9%.
- 1 further market for this fixture is priced on the analysis page.
- Plzen are 34th in the table, Levski Sofia 27th.
- The estimate is revised when confirmed team sheets arrive.
Plzen take on Levski Sofia on 22 October 2026, 19:00 UTC in UEFA Europa League. What follows is the MatchSense model's read on this fixture, with the recent record of both sides for context.
Plzen come into this 34th in the UEFA Europa League table with 0 points; Levski Sofia are 27th on 0 points.
What the model makes of it
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Plzen | 52.5% |
| Draw | 25.6% |
| Levski Sofia | 21.9% |
Read a probability as a long-run frequency: a 55% call means fixtures that look like this one finish that way roughly 55 times in 100.
How both sides arrive
Plzen bring a record of 4-2-4 from their last 10, keeping 3 clean sheets. Levski Sofia have won 4, drawn 4 and lost 2 of their last 10, keeping 5 clean sheets.
Beyond the match result, the model also prices one further market for this fixture — with a modelled price, the difference against the market, and a confidence band. That sits on the match analysis page.
How are these numbers produced?
It starts from a Dixon-Coles style goal model, adds Elo ratings, recent results, home advantage and squad availability. A first estimate goes out well before kickoff; a second follows when the team sheets are confirmed.
The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.
Go deeper
- Full Plzen vs Levski Sofia analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- UEFA Europa League table and fixtures
- Plzen — Profile, squad and fixtures
- Levski Sofia — Profile, squad and fixtures
This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.
Frequently asked questions
Who is more likely to win, Plzen or Levski Sofia?
The MatchSense model gives Plzen the highest probability at 52.5%. That is a real but not decisive edge over the other results.
When do Plzen and Levski Sofia play?
Kick-off is scheduled for 22 October 2026, 19:00 UTC in UEFA Europa League.
Which markets are analysed for Plzen vs Levski Sofia?
Alongside the match result shown on this page, the model prices 1 further markets — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market and a confidence band, on the match analysis page.
What form are Plzen and Levski Sofia in?
Across their last 10, Plzen show 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats, keeping 3 clean sheets. Across their last 10, Levski Sofia show 4 wins, 4 draws and 2 defeats, keeping 5 clean sheets. Recent form is one of the inputs behind the probabilities above.
How is the model's accuracy measured?
Accuracy is measured with Brier score and log loss over thousands of completed fixtures, which is what makes a 60% call mean roughly 60 in 100 — not a certainty about this one.
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