PSIM Yogyakarta vs Persija Prediction — Model Probabilities for 10 October 2026
MatchSense model probabilities for PSIM Yogyakarta vs Persija on 10 October 2026. Numbers refresh as lineups and market prices move.
Key takeaways
- The model's highest probability outcome is Persija at 45.2%.
- Persija: 45.2%.
- Draw: 28.9%.
- PSIM Yogyakarta: 25.9%.
- 1 further market for this fixture is priced on the analysis page.
- PSIM Yogyakarta are 14th in the table, Persija 3rd.
- Probabilities are refreshed once confirmed lineups are published.
PSIM Yogyakarta welcome Persija on 10 October 2026, 08:30 UTC in Liga 1. Below are the MatchSense model's probabilities for this fixture, alongside the form and head-to-head context behind them.
In the Liga 1 table, PSIM Yogyakarta are 14th and Persija 3rd, 8 points between them — 11 places apart in a 22-team competition.
The model's read
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Persija | 45.2% |
| Draw | 28.9% |
| PSIM Yogyakarta | 25.9% |
Read a probability as a long-run frequency: a 55% call means fixtures that look like this one finish that way roughly 55 times in 100.
Recent form
PSIM Yogyakarta come in with 6 defeats in 10, averaging 0.9 scored and 1.3 conceded. Persija arrive on a run of 5 straight wins, conceding just 0.5 a game.
Previous meetings
The two have met just twice in our records. The most recent meeting came on 22 April 2026, PSIM Yogyakarta drawing 1-1.
Beyond the match result, the model also prices one further market for this fixture — with a modelled price, the difference against the market, and a confidence band. That sits on the match analysis page.
Where the numbers come from
The model blends both teams' attacking and defensive strength, Elo ratings, recent form, home advantage and player availability. A first estimate goes out well before kickoff; a second follows when the team sheets are confirmed.
The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.
Go deeper
- Full PSIM Yogyakarta vs Persija analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- Liga 1 table and fixtures
- PSIM Yogyakarta — Profile, squad and fixtures
- Persija — Profile, squad and fixtures
This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.
Frequently asked questions
Who is more likely to win, PSIM Yogyakarta or Persija?
The MatchSense model gives Persija the highest probability at 45.2%. That is a real but not decisive edge over the other results.
When do PSIM Yogyakarta and Persija play?
Kick-off is scheduled for 10 October 2026, 08:30 UTC in Liga 1.
Which markets are analysed for PSIM Yogyakarta vs Persija?
Alongside the match result shown on this page, the model prices 1 further markets — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market and a confidence band, on the match analysis page.
What happened the last time PSIM Yogyakarta played Persija?
They last met on 22 April 2026, PSIM Yogyakarta 1-1 Persija. Across both meetings, PSIM Yogyakarta have won 0, Persija 1, with 1 drawn.
How accurate are these probabilities?
Accuracy is measured with Brier score and log loss over thousands of completed fixtures, which is what makes a 60% call mean roughly 60 in 100 — not a certainty about this one.
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