PSM Makassar vs Persita Prediction — Model Probabilities for 19 September 2026
MatchSense model probabilities for PSM Makassar vs Persita on 19 September 2026. With recent form and previous meetings for context.
Key takeaways
- The model's highest probability outcome is PSM Makassar at 44.6%.
- PSM Makassar: 44.6%.
- Persita: 29.8%.
- Draw: 25.6%.
- PSM Makassar are 15th in the table, Persita 5th.
- The estimate is revised when confirmed team sheets arrive.
PSM Makassar take on Persita on 19 September 2026, 08:30 UTC in Liga 1. This page carries the MatchSense model's probabilities for the fixture — not a tip, but an estimate of how likely each outcome is.
PSM Makassar sit 15th in the Liga 1 table on 1 point from 2 games, with Persita 5th on 4 points — 10 places apart in a 22-team competition.
The model's read
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| PSM Makassar | 44.6% |
| Persita | 29.8% |
| Draw | 25.6% |
These are frequencies, not forecasts — 55% describes how often similar fixtures end that way, not what will happen here.
What each side brings into this
PSM Makassar have lost 6 of their last 10, averaging 1.3 scored and 2.0 conceded. Persita come in with 6 defeats in 10, averaging 0.7 scored and 1.5 conceded.
The head-to-head
Across 3 meetings it is close: 1 to PSM Makassar, 2 to Persita, 0 drawn. They last met on 2 March 2026: PSM Makassar 2-4 Persita, Persita taking it.
How are these numbers produced?
The model blends both teams' attacking and defensive strength, Elo ratings, recent form, home advantage and player availability. An early version publishes days before kickoff and is revised once confirmed lineups land.
The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.
Go deeper
- Full PSM Makassar vs Persita analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- Liga 1 table and fixtures
- PSM Makassar — Profile, squad and fixtures
- Persita — Profile, squad and fixtures
This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.
Frequently asked questions
Who is more likely to win, PSM Makassar or Persita?
The MatchSense model gives PSM Makassar the highest probability at 44.6%. No outcome takes half the probability here, so the model reads it as genuinely open.
When do PSM Makassar and Persita play?
Kick-off is scheduled for 19 September 2026, 08:30 UTC in Liga 1.
What happened the last time PSM Makassar played Persita?
They last met on 2 March 2026, PSM Makassar 2-4 Persita. Across 3 meetings, PSM Makassar have won 1, Persita 2, with 0 drawn.
How is the model's accuracy measured?
Accuracy is measured with Brier score and log loss over thousands of completed fixtures, which is what makes a 60% call mean roughly 60 in 100 — not a certainty about this one.
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