RB Leipzig vs Hamburger SV Prediction — Model Probabilities for 13 September 2026
MatchSense model probabilities for RB Leipzig vs Hamburger SV on 13 September 2026. With recent form and previous meetings for context.
Key takeaways
- The model's highest probability outcome is RB Leipzig at 68.2%.
- RB Leipzig: 68.2%.
- Draw: 18.2%.
- Hamburger SV: 13.7%.
- RB Leipzig are 8th in the table, Hamburger SV 18th.
- The estimate is revised when confirmed team sheets arrive.
RB Leipzig welcome Hamburger SV on 13 September 2026, 13:30 UTC in Bundesliga. This page carries the MatchSense model's probabilities for the fixture — not a tip, but an estimate of how likely each outcome is.
In the Bundesliga table, RB Leipzig are 8th and Hamburger SV 18th, 3 points between them — 10 places apart in an 18-team competition.
What the model makes of it
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| RB Leipzig | 68.2% |
| Draw | 18.2% |
| Hamburger SV | 13.7% |
Read a probability as a long-run frequency: a 55% call means fixtures that look like this one finish that way roughly 55 times in 100.
How both sides arrive
Across their last 10, RB Leipzig show 7 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats, scoring 2.2 a game. Hamburger SV come in with 6 defeats in 10, averaging 1.1 scored and 2.4 conceded.
Previous meetings
The two have met just once in our records. The most recent meeting came on 1 March 2026: Hamburger SV 1-2 RB Leipzig, RB Leipzig taking it.
Behind the estimate
Attacking and defensive strength, Elo ratings, the run of recent results, home advantage and who is fit all feed the estimate. The numbers are revised when confirmed lineups arrive, because one missing starter can move them several points.
The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.
Go deeper
- Full RB Leipzig vs Hamburger SV analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- Bundesliga table and fixtures
- RB Leipzig — Profile, squad and fixtures
- Hamburger SV — Profile, squad and fixtures
This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.
Frequently asked questions
Who is more likely to win, RB Leipzig or Hamburger SV?
The MatchSense model gives RB Leipzig the highest probability at 68.2%. That is a clear lead, though the remainder still sits with the other outcomes.
When do RB Leipzig and Hamburger SV play?
Kick-off is scheduled for 13 September 2026, 13:30 UTC in Bundesliga.
What happened the last time RB Leipzig played Hamburger SV?
They last met on 1 March 2026, Hamburger SV 1-2 RB Leipzig. In their one previous meeting, RB Leipzig have won 1, Hamburger SV 0, with 0 drawn.
How accurate are these probabilities?
They are calibrated against historical fixtures: across a set of 60% calls, close to 60% should actually happen. No model can make a single match certain.
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