FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen Prediction — Model Probabilities for 24 October 2026
MatchSense model probabilities for FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen on 24 October 2026. Form, the table and the head-to-head behind the numbers.
Key takeaways
- The model's highest probability outcome is FSV Mainz 05 at 52.9%.
- FSV Mainz 05: 52.9%.
- Draw: 24.5%.
- Werder Bremen: 22.5%.
- FSV Mainz 05 are 5th in the table, Werder Bremen 8th.
- The estimate is revised when confirmed team sheets arrive.
FSV Mainz 05 welcome Werder Bremen on 24 October 2026, 13:30 UTC in Bundesliga. What follows is the MatchSense model's read on this fixture, with the recent record of both sides for context.
FSV Mainz 05 come into this 5th in the Bundesliga table with 10 points; Werder Bremen are 8th on 9 points.
Who does the model favour?
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| FSV Mainz 05 | 52.9% |
| Draw | 24.5% |
| Werder Bremen | 22.5% |
Read a probability as a long-run frequency: a 55% call means fixtures that look like this one finish that way roughly 55 times in 100.
What each side brings into this
FSV Mainz 05 have won 6, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 10, scoring 2.8 a game. Werder Bremen stretch an unbeaten run of 5 into this one, averaging 1.6 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Previous meetings
The two have met just once in our records. They last met on 1 November 2025, FSV Mainz 05 drawing 1-1.
How are these numbers produced?
The model blends both teams' attacking and defensive strength, Elo ratings, recent form, home advantage and player availability. An early version publishes days before kickoff and is revised once confirmed lineups land.
The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.
Go deeper
- Full FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- Bundesliga table and fixtures
- FSV Mainz 05 — Profile, squad and fixtures
- Werder Bremen — Profile, squad and fixtures
This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.
Frequently asked questions
Who is more likely to win, FSV Mainz 05 or Werder Bremen?
The MatchSense model gives FSV Mainz 05 the highest probability at 52.9%. It leads without settling the fixture — the rest is split across the other outcomes.
When do FSV Mainz 05 and Werder Bremen play?
Kick-off is scheduled for 24 October 2026, 13:30 UTC in Bundesliga.
What happened the last time FSV Mainz 05 played Werder Bremen?
They last met on 1 November 2025, FSV Mainz 05 1-1 Werder Bremen. In their one previous meeting, FSV Mainz 05 have won 0, Werder Bremen 0, with 1 drawn.
How reliable is this estimate?
The model is scored against past results, so a 60% probability has historically landed near 60% of the time. A single match remains uncertain.
Get the weekly briefing
Next week's fixtures, how last week's published picks actually settled, and the newest analysis. One email a week. Unsubscribe in one click.
We never share your address, and every email has a one-click unsubscribe.
Related reading
- How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities
- Borussia Dortmund vs Eintracht Frankfurt Prediction — Model Probabilities for 24 October 2026
- SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV Prediction — Model Probabilities for 24 October 2026
- FC Augsburg vs Union Berlin Prediction — Model Probabilities for 24 October 2026
- RB Leipzig vs SV Elversberg Prediction — Model Probabilities for 24 October 2026