Rennes vs OFI Prediction — Model Probabilities for 15 October 2026
MatchSense model probabilities for Rennes vs OFI on 15 October 2026. With recent form and previous meetings for context.
Key takeaways
- The model's highest probability outcome is Rennes at 75.3%.
- Rennes: 75.3%.
- Draw: 15.2%.
- OFI: 9.5%.
- 2 further markets for this fixture are priced on the analysis page.
- Rennes are 19th in the table, OFI 9th.
- The estimate is revised when confirmed team sheets arrive.
Rennes take on OFI on 15 October 2026, 19:00 UTC in UEFA Europa League. What follows is the MatchSense model's read on this fixture, with the recent record of both sides for context.
In the UEFA Europa League table, Rennes are 19th and OFI 9th, 2 points between them — 10 places apart in a 36-team competition.
The model's read
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Rennes | 75.3% |
| Draw | 15.2% |
| OFI | 9.5% |
These are frequencies, not forecasts — 55% describes how often similar fixtures end that way, not what will happen here.
What each side brings into this
Rennes bring a record of 4-3-3 from their last 10, keeping 2 clean sheets. Across their last 10, OFI show 7 wins, 1 draws and 2 defeats, conceding just 0.8 a game.
Beyond the match result, the model also prices 2 further markets for this fixture — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market, and a confidence band. Those sit on the match analysis page.
How are these numbers produced?
It starts from a Dixon-Coles style goal model, adds Elo ratings, recent results, home advantage and squad availability. A first estimate goes out well before kickoff; a second follows when the team sheets are confirmed.
The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.
Go deeper
- Full Rennes vs OFI analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- UEFA Europa League table and fixtures
- Rennes — Profile, squad and fixtures
- OFI — Profile, squad and fixtures
This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.
Frequently asked questions
Who is more likely to win, Rennes or OFI?
The MatchSense model gives Rennes the highest probability at 75.3%. That makes it the model's firm call, with the balance spread across the rest.
When do Rennes and OFI play?
Kick-off is scheduled for 15 October 2026, 19:00 UTC in UEFA Europa League.
Which markets are analysed for Rennes vs OFI?
Alongside the match result shown on this page, the model prices 2 further markets — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market and a confidence band, on the match analysis page.
What form are Rennes and OFI in?
Across their last 10, Rennes show 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats, keeping 2 clean sheets. OFI bring a record of 7-1-2 from their last 10, conceding just 0.8 a game. Recent form is one of the inputs behind the probabilities above.
How is the model's accuracy measured?
The model is scored against past results, so a 60% probability has historically landed near 60% of the time. A single match remains uncertain.
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