Sunderland vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction — Model Probabilities for 16 September 2026
MatchSense model probabilities for Sunderland vs AZ Alkmaar on 16 September 2026. Form, the table and the head-to-head behind the numbers.
Key takeaways
- The model's highest probability outcome is Sunderland at 56.2%.
- Sunderland: 56.2%.
- Draw: 22.2%.
- AZ Alkmaar: 21.6%.
- 1 further market for this fixture is priced on the analysis page.
- Sunderland come in on 3-3-4 from their last 10.
- Probabilities are refreshed once confirmed lineups are published.
Sunderland take on AZ Alkmaar on 16 September 2026, 19:00 UTC in UEFA Europa League. What follows is the MatchSense model's read on this fixture, with the recent record of both sides for context.
Who does the model favour?
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Sunderland | 56.2% |
| Draw | 22.2% |
| AZ Alkmaar | 21.6% |
These are frequencies, not forecasts — 55% describes how often similar fixtures end that way, not what will happen here.
Recent form
Sunderland bring a record of 3-3-4 from their last 10, keeping 2 clean sheets. AZ Alkmaar stretch an unbeaten run of 10 into this one, scoring 2.3 a game.
Beyond the match result, the model also prices one further market for this fixture — with a modelled price, the difference against the market, and a confidence band. That sits on the match analysis page.
How are these numbers produced?
The model blends both teams' attacking and defensive strength, Elo ratings, recent form, home advantage and player availability. The numbers are revised when confirmed lineups arrive, because one missing starter can move them several points.
The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.
Go deeper
- Full Sunderland vs AZ Alkmaar analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- UEFA Europa League table and fixtures
- Sunderland — Profile, squad and fixtures
- AZ Alkmaar — Profile, squad and fixtures
This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.
Frequently asked questions
Who is more likely to win, Sunderland or AZ Alkmaar?
The MatchSense model gives Sunderland the highest probability at 56.2%. It leads without settling the fixture — the rest is split across the other outcomes.
When do Sunderland and AZ Alkmaar play?
Kick-off is scheduled for 16 September 2026, 19:00 UTC in UEFA Europa League.
Which markets are analysed for Sunderland vs AZ Alkmaar?
Alongside the match result shown on this page, the model prices 1 further markets — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market and a confidence band, on the match analysis page.
What form are Sunderland and AZ Alkmaar in?
Sunderland bring a record of 3-3-4 from their last 10, keeping 2 clean sheets. AZ Alkmaar are unbeaten in 10, scoring 2.3 a game. Recent form is one of the inputs behind the probabilities above.
How reliable is this estimate?
They are calibrated against historical fixtures: across a set of 60% calls, close to 60% should actually happen. No model can make a single match certain.
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