Torino vs AS Roma Prediction — Model Probabilities for 14 September 2026
MatchSense model probabilities for Torino vs AS Roma on 14 September 2026. Form, the table and the head-to-head behind the numbers.
Key takeaways
- The model's highest probability outcome is AS Roma at 54.1%.
- AS Roma: 54.1%.
- Draw: 26.4%.
- Torino: 19.5%.
- 1 further market for this fixture is priced on the analysis page.
- Torino are 14th in the table, AS Roma 2nd.
- The estimate is revised when confirmed team sheets arrive.
Torino welcome AS Roma on 14 September 2026, 16:30 UTC in Serie A. This page carries the MatchSense model's probabilities for the fixture — not a tip, but an estimate of how likely each outcome is.
In the Serie A table, Torino are 14th and AS Roma 2nd, 6 points between them — 12 places apart in a 20-team competition.
Who does the model favour?
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| AS Roma | 54.1% |
| Draw | 26.4% |
| Torino | 19.5% |
Read a probability as a long-run frequency: a 55% call means fixtures that look like this one finish that way roughly 55 times in 100.
Recent form
Torino have won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10, averaging 1.3 scored and 1.5 conceded. AS Roma are unbeaten in 10, scoring 2.5 a game.
Beyond the match result, the model also prices one further market for this fixture — with a modelled price, the difference against the market, and a confidence band. That sits on the match analysis page.
How are these numbers produced?
It starts from a Dixon-Coles style goal model, adds Elo ratings, recent results, home advantage and squad availability. A first estimate goes out well before kickoff; a second follows when the team sheets are confirmed.
The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.
Go deeper
- Full Torino vs AS Roma analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- Serie A table and fixtures
- Torino — Profile, squad and fixtures
- AS Roma — Profile, squad and fixtures
This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.
Frequently asked questions
Who is more likely to win, Torino or AS Roma?
The MatchSense model gives AS Roma the highest probability at 54.1%. That is a real but not decisive edge over the other results.
When do Torino and AS Roma play?
Kick-off is scheduled for 14 September 2026, 16:30 UTC in Serie A.
Which markets are analysed for Torino vs AS Roma?
Alongside the match result shown on this page, the model prices 1 further markets — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market and a confidence band, on the match analysis page.
What form are Torino and AS Roma in?
Torino bring a record of 3-3-4 from their last 10, averaging 1.3 scored and 1.5 conceded. AS Roma stretch an unbeaten run of 10 into this one, scoring 2.5 a game. Recent form is one of the inputs behind the probabilities above.
How accurate are these probabilities?
They are calibrated against historical fixtures: across a set of 60% calls, close to 60% should actually happen. No model can make a single match certain.
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