FOOTBALLEredivisiematch-recap11/10/20261 min readMatchSense Model
Utrecht vs Willem II Result: 3-1 — How the Model Called It, 11 October 2026
Utrecht vs Willem II finished 3-1 on 11 October 2026. Here is that result set against the model's pre-match probabilities.
Key takeaways
- Final score: Utrecht 3-1 Willem II.
- Result: Utrecht.
- The model gave this outcome a 55.9% chance before kick-off.
Final score
Utrecht 3-1 Willem II in Eredivisie, 11 October 2026.
What the model expected
Before kick-off, the MatchSense model gave Utrecht vs Willem II these chances:
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Utrecht | 55.9% |
| Draw | 25.0% |
| Willem II | 19.1% |
The model's most likely outcome — Utrecht at 55.9% — is the one that happened.
One match does not test a model. An outcome given 30% is supposed to happen about three times in ten, so these numbers only mean something read across hundreds of fixtures.
Go deeper
- Full Utrecht vs Willem II analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- Eredivisie table and fixtures
- Utrecht — Profile, squad and fixtures
- Willem II — Profile, squad and fixtures
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