Werder Bremen vs RB Leipzig Prediction — Model Probabilities for 5 September 2026

Werder Bremen host RB Leipzig on 5 September 2026, 13:30 UTC in Bundesliga. The MatchSense model is analysing this fixture; its probabilities appear here once published.

Werder Bremen come into this 10th in the Bundesliga table with 3 points; RB Leipzig are 8th on 3 points.

How both sides arrive

Werder Bremen have lost 7 of their last 10, averaging 0.9 scored and 1.9 conceded. RB Leipzig bring a record of 7-0-3 from their last 10, scoring 2.1 a game.

When these two have met

RB Leipzig have dominated the meetings, taking 3 of 6. They last met on 4 April 2026: Werder Bremen 1-2 RB Leipzig, RB Leipzig taking it.

Beyond the match result, the model also prices 2 further markets for this fixture — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market, and a confidence band. Those sit on the match analysis page.

Behind the estimate

It starts from a Dixon-Coles style goal model, adds Elo ratings, recent results, home advantage and squad availability. An early version publishes days before kickoff and is revised once confirmed lineups land.

The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.

Go deeper

• Full Werder Bremen vs RB Leipzig analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
• Bundesliga table and fixtures
• Werder Bremen — Profile, squad and fixtures
• RB Leipzig — Profile, squad and fixtures

This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.