Willem II vs Fortuna Sittard Prediction — Model Probabilities for 19 September 2026
MatchSense model probabilities for Willem II vs Fortuna Sittard on 19 September 2026. With recent form and previous meetings for context.
Key takeaways
- The model's highest probability outcome is Willem II at 42.3%.
- Willem II: 42.3%.
- Fortuna Sittard: 36.4%.
- Draw: 21.3%.
- 3 further markets for this fixture are priced on the analysis page.
- Willem II are 17th in the table, Fortuna Sittard 8th.
- These numbers move again once the lineups are confirmed.
Willem II take on Fortuna Sittard on 19 September 2026, 19:00 UTC in Eredivisie. Below are the MatchSense model's probabilities for this fixture, alongside the form and head-to-head context behind them.
Willem II come into this 17th in the Eredivisie table with 2 points; Fortuna Sittard are 8th on 10 points — 9 places apart in an 18-team competition.
The model's read
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Willem II | 42.3% |
| Fortuna Sittard | 36.4% |
| Draw | 21.3% |
Read a probability as a long-run frequency: a 55% call means fixtures that look like this one finish that way roughly 55 times in 100.
How both sides arrive
Willem II have lost 6 of their last 10, averaging 1.3 scored and 2.8 conceded. Fortuna Sittard bring a record of 4-1-5 from their last 10, averaging 1.7 scored and 2.2 conceded.
When these two have met
The two have met just once in our records. They last met on 27 April 2025: Fortuna Sittard 1-0 Willem II, Fortuna Sittard taking it.
Beyond the match result, the model also prices 3 further markets for this fixture — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market, and a confidence band. Those sit on the match analysis page.
Where the numbers come from
The model blends both teams' attacking and defensive strength, Elo ratings, recent form, home advantage and player availability. A first estimate goes out well before kickoff; a second follows when the team sheets are confirmed.
The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.
Go deeper
- Full Willem II vs Fortuna Sittard analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- Eredivisie table and fixtures
- Willem II — Profile, squad and fixtures
- Fortuna Sittard — Profile, squad and fixtures
This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.
Frequently asked questions
Who is more likely to win, Willem II or Fortuna Sittard?
The MatchSense model gives Willem II the highest probability at 42.3%. No outcome takes half the probability here, so the model reads it as genuinely open.
When do Willem II and Fortuna Sittard play?
Kick-off is scheduled for 19 September 2026, 19:00 UTC in Eredivisie.
Which markets are analysed for Willem II vs Fortuna Sittard?
Alongside the match result shown on this page, the model prices 3 further markets — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market and a confidence band, on the match analysis page.
What happened the last time Willem II played Fortuna Sittard?
They last met on 27 April 2025, Fortuna Sittard 1-0 Willem II. In their one previous meeting, Willem II have won 0, Fortuna Sittard 1, with 0 drawn.
How accurate are these probabilities?
The model is scored against past results, so a 60% probability has historically landed near 60% of the time. A single match remains uncertain.
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