SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV Prediction — Model Probabilities for 24 October 2026
MatchSense model probabilities for SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV on 24 October 2026. Form, the table and the head-to-head behind the numbers.
Key takeaways
- The model's highest probability outcome is SC Paderborn 07 at 38.6%.
- SC Paderborn 07: 38.6%.
- Hamburger SV: 33.7%.
- Draw: 27.7%.
- SC Paderborn 07 are 16th in the table, Hamburger SV 9th.
- Probabilities are refreshed once confirmed lineups are published.
SC Paderborn 07 take on Hamburger SV on 24 October 2026, 13:30 UTC in Bundesliga. This page carries the MatchSense model's probabilities for the fixture — not a tip, but an estimate of how likely each outcome is.
In the Bundesliga table, SC Paderborn 07 are 16th and Hamburger SV 9th, 4 points between them.
What the model makes of it
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| SC Paderborn 07 | 38.6% |
| Hamburger SV | 33.7% |
| Draw | 27.7% |
A probability is a rate over many similar matches: 55% means about 55 in 100, and says nothing certain about this one.
What each side brings into this
Across their last 10, SC Paderborn 07 show 3 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats, keeping 3 clean sheets. Hamburger SV have won their last 3, keeping 2 clean sheets.
Previous meetings
The two have met just once in our records. They last met on 2 March 2025: SC Paderborn 07 2-0 Hamburger SV, SC Paderborn 07 taking it.
How are these numbers produced?
The model blends both teams' attacking and defensive strength, Elo ratings, recent form, home advantage and player availability. The numbers are revised when confirmed lineups arrive, because one missing starter can move them several points.
The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.
Go deeper
- Full SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- Bundesliga table and fixtures
- SC Paderborn 07 — Profile, squad and fixtures
- Hamburger SV — Profile, squad and fixtures
This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.
Frequently asked questions
Who is more likely to win, SC Paderborn 07 or Hamburger SV?
The MatchSense model gives SC Paderborn 07 the highest probability at 38.6%. Even as the leading call it holds under half the probability, which makes this an open fixture.
When do SC Paderborn 07 and Hamburger SV play?
Kick-off is scheduled for 24 October 2026, 13:30 UTC in Bundesliga.
What happened the last time SC Paderborn 07 played Hamburger SV?
They last met on 2 March 2025, SC Paderborn 07 2-0 Hamburger SV. In their one previous meeting, SC Paderborn 07 have won 1, Hamburger SV 0, with 0 drawn.
How reliable is this estimate?
The model is scored against past results, so a 60% probability has historically landed near 60% of the time. A single match remains uncertain.
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