FC Augsburg vs Union Berlin Prediction — Model Probabilities for 24 October 2026
MatchSense model probabilities for FC Augsburg vs Union Berlin on 24 October 2026. With recent form and previous meetings for context.
Key takeaways
- The model's highest probability outcome is FC Augsburg at 47.3%.
- FC Augsburg: 47.3%.
- Union Berlin: 26.9%.
- Draw: 25.8%.
- FC Augsburg are 10th in the table, Union Berlin 17th.
- The estimate is revised when confirmed team sheets arrive.
FC Augsburg take on Union Berlin on 24 October 2026, 13:30 UTC in Bundesliga. This page carries the MatchSense model's probabilities for the fixture — not a tip, but an estimate of how likely each outcome is.
In the Bundesliga table, FC Augsburg are 10th and Union Berlin 17th, 3 points between them.
The model's read
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| FC Augsburg | 47.3% |
| Union Berlin | 26.9% |
| Draw | 25.8% |
Read a probability as a long-run frequency: a 55% call means fixtures that look like this one finish that way roughly 55 times in 100.
What each side brings into this
FC Augsburg have won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10, scoring 2.4 a game. Across their last 10, Union Berlin show 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats, keeping 3 clean sheets.
Behind the estimate
It starts from a Dixon-Coles style goal model, adds Elo ratings, recent results, home advantage and squad availability. An early version publishes days before kickoff and is revised once confirmed lineups land.
The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.
Go deeper
- Full FC Augsburg vs Union Berlin analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- Bundesliga table and fixtures
- FC Augsburg — Profile, squad and fixtures
- Union Berlin — Profile, squad and fixtures
This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.
Frequently asked questions
Who is more likely to win, FC Augsburg or Union Berlin?
The MatchSense model gives FC Augsburg the highest probability at 47.3%. It leads without settling the fixture — the rest is split across the other outcomes.
When do FC Augsburg and Union Berlin play?
Kick-off is scheduled for 24 October 2026, 13:30 UTC in Bundesliga.
What form are FC Augsburg and Union Berlin in?
FC Augsburg have won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10, scoring 2.4 a game. Union Berlin bring a record of 4-3-3 from their last 10, keeping 3 clean sheets. Recent form is one of the inputs behind the probabilities above.
How reliable is this estimate?
Accuracy is measured with Brier score and log loss over thousands of completed fixtures, which is what makes a 60% call mean roughly 60 in 100 — not a certainty about this one.
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