Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05 Prediction — Model Probabilities for 19 September 2026
MatchSense model probabilities for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05 on 19 September 2026. Form, the table and the head-to-head behind the numbers.
Key takeaways
- The model's highest probability outcome is FSV Mainz 05 at 42.7%.
- FSV Mainz 05: 42.7%.
- Borussia Mönchengladbach: 33.2%.
- Draw: 24.1%.
- Borussia Mönchengladbach are 17th in the table, FSV Mainz 05 8th.
- The estimate is revised when confirmed team sheets arrive.
Borussia Mönchengladbach welcome FSV Mainz 05 on 19 September 2026, 13:30 UTC in Bundesliga. This page carries the MatchSense model's probabilities for the fixture — not a tip, but an estimate of how likely each outcome is.
Borussia Mönchengladbach come into this 17th in the Bundesliga table with 0 points; FSV Mainz 05 are 8th on 4 points — 9 places apart in an 18-team competition.
Who does the model favour?
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| FSV Mainz 05 | 42.7% |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | 33.2% |
| Draw | 24.1% |
Read a probability as a long-run frequency: a 55% call means fixtures that look like this one finish that way roughly 55 times in 100.
How both sides arrive
Borussia Mönchengladbach bring a record of 2-3-5 from their last 10, keeping 3 clean sheets. FSV Mainz 05 have won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10, keeping 3 clean sheets.
How are these numbers produced?
It starts from a Dixon-Coles style goal model, adds Elo ratings, recent results, home advantage and squad availability. An early version publishes days before kickoff and is revised once confirmed lineups land.
The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.
Go deeper
- Full Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05 analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- Bundesliga table and fixtures
- Borussia Mönchengladbach — Profile, squad and fixtures
- FSV Mainz 05 — Profile, squad and fixtures
This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.
Frequently asked questions
Who is more likely to win, Borussia Mönchengladbach or FSV Mainz 05?
The MatchSense model gives FSV Mainz 05 the highest probability at 42.7%. No outcome takes half the probability here, so the model reads it as genuinely open.
When do Borussia Mönchengladbach and FSV Mainz 05 play?
Kick-off is scheduled for 19 September 2026, 13:30 UTC in Bundesliga.
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and FSV Mainz 05 in?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5 of their last 10, keeping 3 clean sheets. Across their last 10, FSV Mainz 05 show 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats, keeping 3 clean sheets. Recent form is one of the inputs behind the probabilities above.
How is the model's accuracy measured?
The model is scored against past results, so a 60% probability has historically landed near 60% of the time. A single match remains uncertain.
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