Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Köln Prediction — Model Probabilities for 19 September 2026
MatchSense model probabilities for Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Köln on 19 September 2026. Numbers refresh as lineups and market prices move.
Key takeaways
- The model's highest probability outcome is Hamburger SV at 39.7%.
- Hamburger SV: 39.7%.
- 1. FC Köln: 35.5%.
- Draw: 24.8%.
- Hamburger SV are 18th in the table, 1. FC Köln 12th.
- These numbers move again once the lineups are confirmed.
Hamburger SV welcome 1. FC Köln on 19 September 2026, 13:30 UTC in Bundesliga. What follows is the MatchSense model's read on this fixture, with the recent record of both sides for context.
Hamburger SV come into this 18th in the Bundesliga table with 0 points; 1. FC Köln are 12th on 4 points.
The model's read
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Hamburger SV | 39.7% |
| 1. FC Köln | 35.5% |
| Draw | 24.8% |
A probability is a rate over many similar matches: 55% means about 55 in 100, and says nothing certain about this one.
Recent form
Hamburger SV come in with 6 defeats in 10, averaging 0.9 scored and 2.6 conceded. Across their last 10, 1. FC Köln show 2 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats, averaging 1.6 scored and 2.3 conceded.
Behind the estimate
The model blends both teams' attacking and defensive strength, Elo ratings, recent form, home advantage and player availability. A first estimate goes out well before kickoff; a second follows when the team sheets are confirmed.
The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.
Go deeper
- Full Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Köln analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- Bundesliga table and fixtures
- Hamburger SV — Profile, squad and fixtures
- 1. FC Köln — Profile, squad and fixtures
This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.
Frequently asked questions
Who is more likely to win, Hamburger SV or 1. FC Köln?
The MatchSense model gives Hamburger SV the highest probability at 39.7%. Even as the leading call it holds under half the probability, which makes this an open fixture.
When do Hamburger SV and 1. FC Köln play?
Kick-off is scheduled for 19 September 2026, 13:30 UTC in Bundesliga.
What form are Hamburger SV and 1. FC Köln in?
Hamburger SV come in with 6 defeats in 10, averaging 0.9 scored and 2.6 conceded. 1. FC Köln have won 2, drawn 4 and lost 4 of their last 10, averaging 1.6 scored and 2.3 conceded. Recent form is one of the inputs behind the probabilities above.
How is the model's accuracy measured?
The model is scored against past results, so a 60% probability has historically landed near 60% of the time. A single match remains uncertain.
Get the weekly briefing
Next week's fixtures, how last week's published picks actually settled, and the newest analysis. One email a week. Unsubscribe in one click.
We never share your address, and every email has a one-click unsubscribe.
Related reading
- How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities
- VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction — Model Probabilities for 19 September 2026
- Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg Prediction — Model Probabilities for 19 September 2026
- Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Freiburg Prediction — Model Probabilities for 19 September 2026
- Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05 Prediction — Model Probabilities for 19 September 2026