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FOOTBALLBundesligamatch-preview15/09/20262 min readMatchSense Model

Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Freiburg Prediction — Model Probabilities for 19 September 2026

MatchSense model probabilities for Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Freiburg on 19 September 2026. With recent form and previous meetings for context.

Key takeaways

  • The model's highest probability outcome is Eintracht Frankfurt at 37.9%.
  • Eintracht Frankfurt: 37.9%.
  • SC Freiburg: 36.5%.
  • Draw: 25.5%.
  • 4 further markets for this fixture are priced on the analysis page.
  • Eintracht Frankfurt are 9th in the table, SC Freiburg 2nd.
  • Probabilities are refreshed once confirmed lineups are published.

Eintracht Frankfurt take on SC Freiburg on 19 September 2026, 13:30 UTC in Bundesliga. What follows is the MatchSense model's read on this fixture, with the recent record of both sides for context.

Eintracht Frankfurt come into this 9th in the Bundesliga table with 4 points; SC Freiburg are 2nd on 9 points.

The model's read

OutcomeModel probability
Eintracht Frankfurt37.9%
SC Freiburg36.5%
Draw25.5%

These are frequencies, not forecasts — 55% describes how often similar fixtures end that way, not what will happen here.

What each side brings into this

Eintracht Frankfurt bring a record of 2-4-4 from their last 10, averaging 1.8 scored and 2.2 conceded. SC Freiburg come in having won 3 in a row, scoring 2.1 a game.

Beyond the match result, the model also prices 4 further markets for this fixture — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market, and a confidence band. Those sit on the match analysis page.

Behind the estimate

Attacking and defensive strength, Elo ratings, the run of recent results, home advantage and who is fit all feed the estimate. The numbers are revised when confirmed lineups arrive, because one missing starter can move them several points.

The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.

Go deeper

This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.

Frequently asked questions

Who is more likely to win, Eintracht Frankfurt or SC Freiburg?

The MatchSense model gives Eintracht Frankfurt the highest probability at 37.9%. Even as the leading call it holds under half the probability, which makes this an open fixture.

When do Eintracht Frankfurt and SC Freiburg play?

Kick-off is scheduled for 19 September 2026, 13:30 UTC in Bundesliga.

Which markets are analysed for Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Freiburg?

Alongside the match result shown on this page, the model prices 4 further markets — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market and a confidence band, on the match analysis page.

What form are Eintracht Frankfurt and SC Freiburg in?

Eintracht Frankfurt have won 2, drawn 4 and lost 4 of their last 10, averaging 1.8 scored and 2.2 conceded. SC Freiburg come in having won 3 in a row, scoring 2.1 a game. Recent form is one of the inputs behind the probabilities above.

How accurate are these probabilities?

Accuracy is measured with Brier score and log loss over thousands of completed fixtures, which is what makes a 60% call mean roughly 60 in 100 — not a certainty about this one.

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