VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction — Model Probabilities for 19 September 2026
MatchSense model probabilities for VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund on 19 September 2026. Form, the table and the head-to-head behind the numbers.
Key takeaways
- The model's highest probability outcome is Borussia Dortmund at 38.2%.
- Borussia Dortmund: 38.2%.
- VfB Stuttgart: 36.1%.
- Draw: 25.7%.
- VfB Stuttgart are 14th in the table, Borussia Dortmund 2nd.
- These numbers move again once the lineups are confirmed.
VfB Stuttgart welcome Borussia Dortmund on 19 September 2026, 16:30 UTC in Bundesliga. This page carries the MatchSense model's probabilities for the fixture — not a tip, but an estimate of how likely each outcome is.
VfB Stuttgart come into this 14th in the Bundesliga table with 3 points; Borussia Dortmund are 2nd on 9 points — 12 places apart in an 18-team competition.
Who does the model favour?
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund | 38.2% |
| VfB Stuttgart | 36.1% |
| Draw | 25.7% |
A probability is a rate over many similar matches: 55% means about 55 in 100, and says nothing certain about this one.
Recent form
Across their last 10, VfB Stuttgart show 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats, scoring 2.4 a game. Borussia Dortmund come in having won 6 in a row, scoring 2.1 a game.
Where the numbers come from
It starts from a Dixon-Coles style goal model, adds Elo ratings, recent results, home advantage and squad availability. A first estimate goes out well before kickoff; a second follows when the team sheets are confirmed.
The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.
Go deeper
- Full VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- Bundesliga table and fixtures
- VfB Stuttgart — Profile, squad and fixtures
- Borussia Dortmund — Profile, squad and fixtures
This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.
Frequently asked questions
Who is more likely to win, VfB Stuttgart or Borussia Dortmund?
The MatchSense model gives Borussia Dortmund the highest probability at 38.2%. No outcome takes half the probability here, so the model reads it as genuinely open.
When do VfB Stuttgart and Borussia Dortmund play?
Kick-off is scheduled for 19 September 2026, 16:30 UTC in Bundesliga.
What form are VfB Stuttgart and Borussia Dortmund in?
Across their last 10, VfB Stuttgart show 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats, scoring 2.4 a game. Borussia Dortmund arrive on a run of 6 straight wins, scoring 2.1 a game. Recent form is one of the inputs behind the probabilities above.
How reliable is this estimate?
Accuracy is measured with Brier score and log loss over thousands of completed fixtures, which is what makes a 60% call mean roughly 60 in 100 — not a certainty about this one.
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