Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg Prediction — Model Probabilities for 19 September 2026
MatchSense model probabilities for Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg on 19 September 2026. Form, the table and the head-to-head behind the numbers.
Key takeaways
- The model's highest probability outcome is Werder Bremen at 40.4%.
- Werder Bremen: 40.4%.
- FC Augsburg: 35.4%.
- Draw: 24.2%.
- Werder Bremen are 10th in the table, FC Augsburg 3rd.
- These numbers move again once the lineups are confirmed.
Werder Bremen welcome FC Augsburg on 19 September 2026, 13:30 UTC in Bundesliga. This page carries the MatchSense model's probabilities for the fixture — not a tip, but an estimate of how likely each outcome is.
Werder Bremen come into this 10th in the Bundesliga table with 4 points; FC Augsburg are 3rd on 7 points.
What the model makes of it
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Werder Bremen | 40.4% |
| FC Augsburg | 35.4% |
| Draw | 24.2% |
A probability is a rate over many similar matches: 55% means about 55 in 100, and says nothing certain about this one.
Recent form
Werder Bremen come in with 6 defeats in 10, averaging 1.2 scored and 1.9 conceded. Across their last 10, FC Augsburg show 5 wins, 4 draws and 1 defeats, scoring 2.1 a game.
Where the numbers come from
The model blends both teams' attacking and defensive strength, Elo ratings, recent form, home advantage and player availability. An early version publishes days before kickoff and is revised once confirmed lineups land.
The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.
Go deeper
- Full Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- Bundesliga table and fixtures
- Werder Bremen — Profile, squad and fixtures
- FC Augsburg — Profile, squad and fixtures
This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.
Frequently asked questions
Who is more likely to win, Werder Bremen or FC Augsburg?
The MatchSense model gives Werder Bremen the highest probability at 40.4%. Even as the leading call it holds under half the probability, which makes this an open fixture.
When do Werder Bremen and FC Augsburg play?
Kick-off is scheduled for 19 September 2026, 13:30 UTC in Bundesliga.
What form are Werder Bremen and FC Augsburg in?
Werder Bremen come in with 6 defeats in 10, averaging 1.2 scored and 1.9 conceded. Across their last 10, FC Augsburg show 5 wins, 4 draws and 1 defeats, scoring 2.1 a game. Recent form is one of the inputs behind the probabilities above.
How is the model's accuracy measured?
The model is scored against past results, so a 60% probability has historically landed near 60% of the time. A single match remains uncertain.
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- How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities
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