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FOOTBALLUEFA Europa Leaguematch-preview11/10/20262 min readMatchSense Model

Celje vs Omonia Nicosia Prediction — Model Probabilities for 15 October 2026

MatchSense model probabilities for Celje vs Omonia Nicosia on 15 October 2026. Numbers refresh as lineups and market prices move.

Key takeaways

  • The model's highest probability outcome is Celje at 40.6%.
  • Celje: 40.6%.
  • Omonia Nicosia: 31.8%.
  • Draw: 27.6%.
  • 2 further markets for this fixture are priced on the analysis page.
  • Celje are 29th in the table, Omonia Nicosia 15th.
  • These numbers move again once the lineups are confirmed.

Celje host Omonia Nicosia on 15 October 2026, 16:45 UTC in UEFA Europa League. What follows is the MatchSense model's read on this fixture, with the recent record of both sides for context.

Celje sit 29th in the UEFA Europa League table on 0 points from 1 game, with Omonia Nicosia 15th on 3 points — 14 places apart in a 36-team competition.

The model's read

OutcomeModel probability
Celje40.6%
Omonia Nicosia31.8%
Draw27.6%

Read a probability as a long-run frequency: a 55% call means fixtures that look like this one finish that way roughly 55 times in 100.

How both sides arrive

Across their last 10, Celje show 3 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats, keeping 2 clean sheets. Across their last 10, Omonia Nicosia show 4 wins, 1 draws and 5 defeats, keeping 3 clean sheets.

Beyond the match result, the model also prices 2 further markets for this fixture — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market, and a confidence band. Those sit on the match analysis page.

Behind the estimate

It starts from a Dixon-Coles style goal model, adds Elo ratings, recent results, home advantage and squad availability. The numbers are revised when confirmed lineups arrive, because one missing starter can move them several points.

The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.

Go deeper

This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.

Frequently asked questions

Who is more likely to win, Celje or Omonia Nicosia?

The MatchSense model gives Celje the highest probability at 40.6%. No outcome takes half the probability here, so the model reads it as genuinely open.

When do Celje and Omonia Nicosia play?

Kick-off is scheduled for 15 October 2026, 16:45 UTC in UEFA Europa League.

Which markets are analysed for Celje vs Omonia Nicosia?

Alongside the match result shown on this page, the model prices 2 further markets — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market and a confidence band, on the match analysis page.

What form are Celje and Omonia Nicosia in?

Across their last 10, Celje show 3 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats, keeping 2 clean sheets. Omonia Nicosia bring a record of 4-1-5 from their last 10, keeping 3 clean sheets. Recent form is one of the inputs behind the probabilities above.

How reliable is this estimate?

Accuracy is measured with Brier score and log loss over thousands of completed fixtures, which is what makes a 60% call mean roughly 60 in 100 — not a certainty about this one.

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