Tottenham vs Aston Villa Prediction — Model Probabilities for 19 September 2026
MatchSense model probabilities for Tottenham vs Aston Villa on 19 September 2026. Form, the table and the head-to-head behind the numbers.
Key takeaways
- The model's highest probability outcome is Tottenham at 38.0%.
- Tottenham: 38.0%.
- Aston Villa: 32.5%.
- Draw: 29.5%.
- Tottenham are 17th in the table, Aston Villa 19th.
- The estimate is revised when confirmed team sheets arrive.
Tottenham host Aston Villa on 19 September 2026, 11:30 UTC in Premier League. This page carries the MatchSense model's probabilities for the fixture — not a tip, but an estimate of how likely each outcome is.
Tottenham sit 17th in the Premier League table on 2 points from 4 games, with Aston Villa 19th on 1 point.
The model's read
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Tottenham | 38.0% |
| Aston Villa | 32.5% |
| Draw | 29.5% |
These are frequencies, not forecasts — 55% describes how often similar fixtures end that way, not what will happen here.
How both sides arrive
Tottenham bring a record of 3-4-3 from their last 10, keeping 4 clean sheets. Aston Villa bring a record of 5-2-3 from their last 10, keeping 3 clean sheets.
When these two have met
Across 4 meetings it is close: 2 to Tottenham, 2 to Aston Villa, 0 drawn. The most recent meeting came on 3 May 2026: Aston Villa 1-2 Tottenham, Tottenham taking it.
Where the numbers come from
It starts from a Dixon-Coles style goal model, adds Elo ratings, recent results, home advantage and squad availability. An early version publishes days before kickoff and is revised once confirmed lineups land.
The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.
Go deeper
- Full Tottenham vs Aston Villa analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- Premier League table and fixtures
- Tottenham — Profile, squad and fixtures
- Aston Villa — Profile, squad and fixtures
This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.
Frequently asked questions
Who is more likely to win, Tottenham or Aston Villa?
The MatchSense model gives Tottenham the highest probability at 38.0%. No outcome takes half the probability here, so the model reads it as genuinely open.
When do Tottenham and Aston Villa play?
Kick-off is scheduled for 19 September 2026, 11:30 UTC in Premier League.
What happened the last time Tottenham played Aston Villa?
They last met on 3 May 2026, Aston Villa 1-2 Tottenham. Across 4 meetings, Tottenham have won 2, Aston Villa 2, with 0 drawn.
How is the model's accuracy measured?
They are calibrated against historical fixtures: across a set of 60% calls, close to 60% should actually happen. No model can make a single match certain.
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