Union St. Gilloise vs Hapoel Beer Sheva Prediction — Model Probabilities for 22 October 2026
MatchSense model probabilities for Union St. Gilloise vs Hapoel Beer Sheva on 22 October 2026. With recent form and previous meetings for context.
Key takeaways
- The model's highest probability outcome is Union St. Gilloise at 73.6%.
- Union St. Gilloise: 73.6%.
- Draw: 17.2%.
- Hapoel Beer Sheva: 9.1%.
- Union St. Gilloise are 5th in the table, Hapoel Beer Sheva 18th.
- These numbers move again once the lineups are confirmed.
Union St. Gilloise welcome Hapoel Beer Sheva on 22 October 2026, 16:45 UTC in UEFA Europa League. This page carries the MatchSense model's probabilities for the fixture — not a tip, but an estimate of how likely each outcome is.
In the UEFA Europa League table, Union St. Gilloise are 5th and Hapoel Beer Sheva 18th, 2 points between them — 13 places apart in a 36-team competition.
What the model makes of it
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Union St. Gilloise | 73.6% |
| Draw | 17.2% |
| Hapoel Beer Sheva | 9.1% |
A probability is a rate over many similar matches: 55% means about 55 in 100, and says nothing certain about this one.
What each side brings into this
Union St. Gilloise stretch an unbeaten run of 10 into this one, scoring 2.3 a game. Hapoel Beer Sheva have won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10, keeping 5 clean sheets.
Behind the estimate
Attacking and defensive strength, Elo ratings, the run of recent results, home advantage and who is fit all feed the estimate. The numbers are revised when confirmed lineups arrive, because one missing starter can move them several points.
The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.
Go deeper
- Full Union St. Gilloise vs Hapoel Beer Sheva analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- UEFA Europa League table and fixtures
- Union St. Gilloise — Profile, squad and fixtures
- Hapoel Beer Sheva — Profile, squad and fixtures
This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.
Frequently asked questions
Who is more likely to win, Union St. Gilloise or Hapoel Beer Sheva?
The MatchSense model gives Union St. Gilloise the highest probability at 73.6%. That is a clear lead, though the remainder still sits with the other outcomes.
When do Union St. Gilloise and Hapoel Beer Sheva play?
Kick-off is scheduled for 22 October 2026, 16:45 UTC in UEFA Europa League.
What form are Union St. Gilloise and Hapoel Beer Sheva in?
Union St. Gilloise are unbeaten in 10, scoring 2.3 a game. Across their last 10, Hapoel Beer Sheva show 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats, keeping 5 clean sheets. Recent form is one of the inputs behind the probabilities above.
How is the model's accuracy measured?
They are calibrated against historical fixtures: across a set of 60% calls, close to 60% should actually happen. No model can make a single match certain.
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