Venezia vs Fiorentina Prediction — Model Probabilities for 11 September 2026
MatchSense model probabilities for Venezia vs Fiorentina on 11 September 2026. Form, the table and the head-to-head behind the numbers.
Key takeaways
- The model's highest probability outcome is Venezia at 49.6%.
- Venezia: 49.6%.
- Fiorentina: 31.2%.
- Draw: 19.2%.
- 2 further markets for this fixture are priced on the analysis page.
- Venezia are 18th in the table, Fiorentina 20th.
- Probabilities are refreshed once confirmed lineups are published.
Venezia host Fiorentina on 11 September 2026, 18:45 UTC in Serie A. What follows is the MatchSense model's read on this fixture, with the recent record of both sides for context.
In the Serie A table, Venezia are 18th and Fiorentina 20th, level on points between them.
The model's read
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Venezia | 49.6% |
| Fiorentina | 31.2% |
| Draw | 19.2% |
Read a probability as a long-run frequency: a 55% call means fixtures that look like this one finish that way roughly 55 times in 100.
What each side brings into this
Venezia bring a record of 4-3-3 from their last 10, keeping 3 clean sheets. Fiorentina have won 2, drawn 4 and lost 4 of their last 10, keeping 4 clean sheets.
The head-to-head
The two have met just twice in our records. The most recent meeting came on 12 May 2025: Venezia 2-1 Fiorentina, Venezia taking it.
Beyond the match result, the model also prices 2 further markets for this fixture — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market, and a confidence band. Those sit on the match analysis page.
Where the numbers come from
The model blends both teams' attacking and defensive strength, Elo ratings, recent form, home advantage and player availability. A first estimate goes out well before kickoff; a second follows when the team sheets are confirmed.
The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.
Go deeper
- Full Venezia vs Fiorentina analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- Serie A table and fixtures
- Venezia — Profile, squad and fixtures
- Fiorentina — Profile, squad and fixtures
This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.
Frequently asked questions
Who is more likely to win, Venezia or Fiorentina?
The MatchSense model gives Venezia the highest probability at 49.6%. It leads without settling the fixture — the rest is split across the other outcomes.
When do Venezia and Fiorentina play?
Kick-off is scheduled for 11 September 2026, 18:45 UTC in Serie A.
Which markets are analysed for Venezia vs Fiorentina?
Alongside the match result shown on this page, the model prices 2 further markets — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market and a confidence band, on the match analysis page.
What happened the last time Venezia played Fiorentina?
They last met on 12 May 2025, Venezia 2-1 Fiorentina. Across both meetings, Venezia have won 1, Fiorentina 0, with 1 drawn.
How accurate are these probabilities?
Accuracy is measured with Brier score and log loss over thousands of completed fixtures, which is what makes a 60% call mean roughly 60 in 100 — not a certainty about this one.
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