FOOTBALLBundesligamatch-recap17/10/20261 min readMatchSense Model
FC Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05 Result: 0-1 — How the Model Called It, 17 October 2026
FC Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05 finished 0-1 on 17 October 2026. Here is that result set against the model's pre-match probabilities.
Key takeaways
- Final score: FC Schalke 04 0-1 FSV Mainz 05.
- Result: FSV Mainz 05.
- The model gave this outcome a 46.3% chance before kick-off.
Final score
FC Schalke 04 0-1 FSV Mainz 05 in Bundesliga, 17 October 2026.
What the model expected
Before kick-off, the MatchSense model gave FC Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05 these chances:
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| FC Schalke 04 | 26.5% |
| Draw | 26.9% |
| FSV Mainz 05 | 46.3% |
The model's most likely outcome — FSV Mainz 05 at 46.3% — is the one that happened.
One match does not test a model. An outcome given 30% is supposed to happen about three times in ten, so these numbers only mean something read across hundreds of fixtures.
Go deeper
- Full FC Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05 analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- Bundesliga table and fixtures
- FC Schalke 04 — Profile, squad and fixtures
- FSV Mainz 05 — Profile, squad and fixtures
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