FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen Prediction — Model Probabilities for 10 October 2026
MatchSense model probabilities for FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen on 10 October 2026. Numbers refresh as lineups and market prices move.
Key takeaways
- The model's highest probability outcome is Bayer Leverkusen at 46.9%.
- Bayer Leverkusen: 46.9%.
- FSV Mainz 05: 28.9%.
- Draw: 24.2%.
- FSV Mainz 05 are 6th in the table, Bayer Leverkusen 5th.
- The estimate is revised when confirmed team sheets arrive.
FSV Mainz 05 welcome Bayer Leverkusen on 10 October 2026, 13:30 UTC in Bundesliga. What follows is the MatchSense model's read on this fixture, with the recent record of both sides for context.
In the Bundesliga table, FSV Mainz 05 are 6th and Bayer Leverkusen 5th, level on points between them, a single place apart.
The model's read
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Bayer Leverkusen | 46.9% |
| FSV Mainz 05 | 28.9% |
| Draw | 24.2% |
Read a probability as a long-run frequency: a 55% call means fixtures that look like this one finish that way roughly 55 times in 100.
How both sides arrive
Across their last 10, FSV Mainz 05 show 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats, scoring 2.8 a game. Bayer Leverkusen stretch an unbeaten run of 4 into this one, scoring 2.4 a game.
Where the numbers come from
It starts from a Dixon-Coles style goal model, adds Elo ratings, recent results, home advantage and squad availability. An early version publishes days before kickoff and is revised once confirmed lineups land.
The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.
Go deeper
- Full FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- Bundesliga table and fixtures
- FSV Mainz 05 — Profile, squad and fixtures
- Bayer Leverkusen — Profile, squad and fixtures
This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.
Frequently asked questions
Who is more likely to win, FSV Mainz 05 or Bayer Leverkusen?
The MatchSense model gives Bayer Leverkusen the highest probability at 46.9%. That is a real but not decisive edge over the other results.
When do FSV Mainz 05 and Bayer Leverkusen play?
Kick-off is scheduled for 10 October 2026, 13:30 UTC in Bundesliga.
What form are FSV Mainz 05 and Bayer Leverkusen in?
Across their last 10, FSV Mainz 05 show 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats, scoring 2.8 a game. Bayer Leverkusen stretch an unbeaten run of 4 into this one, scoring 2.4 a game. Recent form is one of the inputs behind the probabilities above.
How is the model's accuracy measured?
They are calibrated against historical fixtures: across a set of 60% calls, close to 60% should actually happen. No model can make a single match certain.
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