FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen Result: 3-4 — How the Model Called It, 10 October 2026
FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen finished 3-4 on 10 October 2026. Here is that result set against the model's pre-match probabilities.
Key takeaways
- Final score: FSV Mainz 05 3-4 Bayer Leverkusen.
- Result: Bayer Leverkusen.
- The model gave this outcome a 46.9% chance before kick-off.
Final score
FSV Mainz 05 3-4 Bayer Leverkusen in Bundesliga, 10 October 2026.
What the model expected
Before kick-off, the MatchSense model gave FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen these chances:
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| FSV Mainz 05 | 28.9% |
| Draw | 24.2% |
| Bayer Leverkusen | 46.9% |
The model's most likely outcome — Bayer Leverkusen at 46.9% — is the one that happened.
One match does not test a model. An outcome given 30% is supposed to happen about three times in ten, so these numbers only mean something read across hundreds of fixtures.
Go deeper
- Full FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- Bundesliga table and fixtures
- FSV Mainz 05 — Profile, squad and fixtures
- Bayer Leverkusen — Profile, squad and fixtures
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