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FOOTBALLBundesligamatch-preview13/10/20262 min readMatchSense Model

Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart Prediction — Model Probabilities for 17 October 2026

MatchSense model probabilities for Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart on 17 October 2026. With recent form and previous meetings for context.

Key takeaways

  • The model's highest probability outcome is VfB Stuttgart at 50.3%.
  • VfB Stuttgart: 50.3%.
  • Draw: 26.2%.
  • Hamburger SV: 23.6%.
  • 1 further market for this fixture is priced on the analysis page.
  • Hamburger SV are 12th in the table, VfB Stuttgart 11th.
  • The estimate is revised when confirmed team sheets arrive.

Hamburger SV take on VfB Stuttgart on 17 October 2026, 13:30 UTC in Bundesliga. Below are the MatchSense model's probabilities for this fixture, alongside the form and head-to-head context behind them.

Hamburger SV sit 12th in the Bundesliga table on 6 points from 5 games, with VfB Stuttgart 11th on 6 points, a single place apart.

Who does the model favour?

OutcomeModel probability
VfB Stuttgart50.3%
Draw26.2%
Hamburger SV23.6%

Read a probability as a long-run frequency: a 55% call means fixtures that look like this one finish that way roughly 55 times in 100.

What each side brings into this

Across their last 10, Hamburger SV show 5 wins, 1 draws and 4 defeats, averaging 1.5 scored and 2.1 conceded. VfB Stuttgart bring a record of 5-1-4 from their last 10, scoring 2.0 a game.

The head-to-head

The two have met just once in our records. They last met on 30 November 2025: Hamburger SV 2-1 VfB Stuttgart, Hamburger SV taking it.

Beyond the match result, the model also prices one further market for this fixture — with a modelled price, the difference against the market, and a confidence band. That sits on the match analysis page.

How are these numbers produced?

It starts from a Dixon-Coles style goal model, adds Elo ratings, recent results, home advantage and squad availability. The numbers are revised when confirmed lineups arrive, because one missing starter can move them several points.

The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.

Go deeper

This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.

Frequently asked questions

Who is more likely to win, Hamburger SV or VfB Stuttgart?

The MatchSense model gives VfB Stuttgart the highest probability at 50.3%. It leads without settling the fixture — the rest is split across the other outcomes.

When do Hamburger SV and VfB Stuttgart play?

Kick-off is scheduled for 17 October 2026, 13:30 UTC in Bundesliga.

Which markets are analysed for Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart?

Alongside the match result shown on this page, the model prices 1 further markets — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market and a confidence band, on the match analysis page.

What happened the last time Hamburger SV played VfB Stuttgart?

They last met on 30 November 2025, Hamburger SV 2-1 VfB Stuttgart. In their one previous meeting, Hamburger SV have won 1, VfB Stuttgart 0, with 0 drawn.

How reliable is this estimate?

Accuracy is measured with Brier score and log loss over thousands of completed fixtures, which is what makes a 60% call mean roughly 60 in 100 — not a certainty about this one.

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