Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07 Prediction — Model Probabilities for 17 October 2026
MatchSense model probabilities for Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07 on 17 October 2026. With recent form and previous meetings for context.
Key takeaways
- The model's highest probability outcome is Werder Bremen at 48.6%.
- Werder Bremen: 48.6%.
- SC Paderborn 07: 27.2%.
- Draw: 24.2%.
- Werder Bremen are 7th in the table, SC Paderborn 07 15th.
- The estimate is revised when confirmed team sheets arrive.
Werder Bremen take on SC Paderborn 07 on 17 October 2026, 13:30 UTC in Bundesliga. What follows is the MatchSense model's read on this fixture, with the recent record of both sides for context.
In the Bundesliga table, Werder Bremen are 7th and SC Paderborn 07 15th, 4 points between them — 8 places apart in an 18-team competition.
Who does the model favour?
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Werder Bremen | 48.6% |
| SC Paderborn 07 | 27.2% |
| Draw | 24.2% |
Read a probability as a long-run frequency: a 55% call means fixtures that look like this one finish that way roughly 55 times in 100.
Recent form
Werder Bremen stretch an unbeaten run of 4 into this one, averaging 1.5 scored and 1.7 conceded. SC Paderborn 07 bring a record of 4-3-3 from their last 10, keeping 4 clean sheets.
When these two have met
The two have met just once in our records. The most recent meeting came on 30 October 2024: SC Paderborn 07 0-1 Werder Bremen, Werder Bremen taking it.
Behind the estimate
The model blends both teams' attacking and defensive strength, Elo ratings, recent form, home advantage and player availability. A first estimate goes out well before kickoff; a second follows when the team sheets are confirmed.
The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.
Go deeper
- Full Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07 analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- Bundesliga table and fixtures
- Werder Bremen — Profile, squad and fixtures
- SC Paderborn 07 — Profile, squad and fixtures
This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.
Frequently asked questions
Who is more likely to win, Werder Bremen or SC Paderborn 07?
The MatchSense model gives Werder Bremen the highest probability at 48.6%. It leads without settling the fixture — the rest is split across the other outcomes.
When do Werder Bremen and SC Paderborn 07 play?
Kick-off is scheduled for 17 October 2026, 13:30 UTC in Bundesliga.
What happened the last time Werder Bremen played SC Paderborn 07?
They last met on 30 October 2024, SC Paderborn 07 0-1 Werder Bremen. In their one previous meeting, Werder Bremen have won 1, SC Paderborn 07 0, with 0 drawn.
How accurate are these probabilities?
Accuracy is measured with Brier score and log loss over thousands of completed fixtures, which is what makes a 60% call mean roughly 60 in 100 — not a certainty about this one.
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